European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaus Liebscher said he still expects euro-region inflation to slow toward the end of the year, even after it reached an “alarmingly high'' rate last month.
“We will certainly see this elevated level for some time,'' Liebscher told reporters today at an event in Dornbirn, Austria. “But I still expect that we'll see a slowing in inflation toward year-end.''
The ECB has held interest rates at a six-year high to fight inflation, which accelerated to 3.5 percent in March, the fastest pace in almost 16 years. While some council members including Germany's Axel Weber have said rates may need to rise if wages are adjusted for faster inflation, others have noted that slowing economic growth may damp price pressures.
The International Monetary Fund, in a background paper obtained by Bloomberg News yesterday, said the ECB has room to cut interest rates as economic growth slows “sharply.'' The Washington-based fund expects the 15-nation euro-region economy to expand 1.3 percent this year, the weakest pace since 2003, as the U.S. housing slump pushes up borrowing costs globally.
European business and consumer confidence declined in March and growth in manufacturing and service industries slowed creditreport.
Slight Deterioration
“The economic outlook has deteriorated slightly,'' said Liebscher, who also heads Austria's central bank. Still, “there is no reason for pessimism.''
The Frankfurt-based central bank last month reduced its forecasts for euro-region economic growth this year to about 1.7 percent from 2 percent. It also raised its 2008 inflation forecast to about 2.9 percent, which would be the highest annual rate since 1993, according to IMF figures. The ECB aims to keep annual gains in consumer prices just below 2 percent.
Crude oil prices have increased 60 percent in the past year, reaching an all-time high of $111.80 a barrel on March 17.
Liebscher said the ECB needs to “do everything to keep inflation expectations from building up.'' Still, inflation has “temporarily climbed to unpleasantly high levels'' and policy makers “don't have a pre-committed opinion'' on interest rates, he said.
The ECB will next decide on rates on April 10.
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