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The numbers being batted around when it comes to how much the oil spill will ultimately cost BP and the local Gulf of Mexico economies are huge. $3 billion. $14 billion. One politician put it at over $100 billion.

The range is so big because two important questions remain unanswered: When will the leak be sealed, and will most of the oil wash ashore? Until those are answered no one will know the pricetag of the damages for sure.

But there have been studies done looking at what’s broadly at stake, and the number is quite large indeed.

The four biggest industries in the Gulf of Mexico are oil, tourism, fishing and shipping, and they account for some $234 billion in economic activity each year, according to a 2007 study done by regional scholars and published by Texas A&M University Press.

Two thirds of that amount is in the United States, with the other third in Mexico.

If the Gulf of Mexico were a country, it would be the 29th largest economy in the world.

Oil and gas

Ironically, the largest chunk of that money is generated by the oil and gas industry, and they may ultimately be the ones that lose the most.

Oil and gas interests generate $124 billion or 53% of the total money, according to Jim Cato, a former economics professor at the University of Florida and one of the authors on the study.

As of Thursday, all new offshore drilling in U.S. waters in the Gulf remained closed following the sinking of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig last month, which claimed 11 lives and left an uncapped oil well leaking thousands of gallons a day into the water.

Oil production from existing wells has been largely unaffected and drillers have been busying themselves with wells begun before the explosion. But the longer the ban remains intact, the harder the economic bite.

"If the moratorium is continued through June, lost revenue from shallow water drilling is estimated at $135 million," said a letter Friday from ten senators urging a lifting of the ban.

The ban may eventually be lifted, but how much more the oil industry will have to pay for royalties or spill prevention, plus restricted access to new drilling sites, remains to be seen.

Tourism

Tourism is the second largest industry in the Gulf, and it ranks right behind oil. About 46% of the Gulf economy, or over $100 billion a year, is from tourism dollars, according to the A&M report.

With tourism, it’s not necessarily the oil that washes up on the beach that hurts the industry, but how much oil people think will wash up on the beach. And people seem to think it will be bad.

In Florida, state tourism officials recently told CNN they’re getting cancellations as far as three months out.

In Mississippi it’s even worse.

Ken Montana, President of the Mississippi Gulf Coast Tourism Commission, said cancellation rates are running at nearly 50%.

"The perception is that everybody has oil on the beach and we are all closed up," Montana told CNN. "No beaches are closed, period."

Fishing and shipping

Fishermen are perhaps the most directly impacted by the spill. The government has already closed over 20% of federal waters for fishing activities and many of them are out of work.

But commercial fishing and shipping together only account for 1% of the Gulf’s total economic activity.

While the number is small in terms of Gulf cost dollars, it does not factor in the impact a shut down in shipping could have, which could halt grain and other cargo from traveling up and down the Mississippi River.

According to the Port of New Orleans, no disruption in shipping is foreseen. The Coast Guard has set up five washing stations for ships to get scrubbed if they come into contact with the oil, but so far none have been used, said a port spokesman.

What’s at stake

Obviously, the oil spill isn’t going to shut down the Gulf’s entire economic output.

When the spill first happened, researchers at the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, who also contributed to the A&M report, estimated the economic damages might be $1.6 billion. That number included $400 million in direct economic costs, and another $1.2 million in services provided by wetlands that might be compromised - things like water filtration and such.

But that number was arrived at when the oil spill was estimated to be 1,000 barrels a day, said David Yoskowitz, chair of socio-economics at Harte.

BP (BP) estimates for the oil leak are now 5,000 barrels a day, and some say it could be 10 times that.

Moreover, both the Harte study and the A&M report only look at the Gulf of Mexico. Yet there are reports that the oil is getting caught up in the so-called loop current, which could bring it up the eastern seaboard.

"If that happens, all bets are off," said Yoskowitz.  

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Amy and Tom Asch’s Amy Asch Photography took home $12,000 and the title of best business plan from the 2010 Houston Community College and Newspring Business Plan Competition.

Amy Asch Photography, a boutique photography studio business that will open in Spring Branch.

Second prize of $8,000 went to Filip Valica for Maker Acre, a prototyping lab that will allow inventors to turn ideas into finished products by providing coaching and access to technology used by leading manufacturers. Third prize of $4,000 went to Lisa Reyna for International Consulates, a social entrepreneurship providing customized educational and support services that help to facilitate the successful integration of Houston’s foreign nationals by providing educational, vocational, social and cultural services payday lenders.

Nineteen teams competed in this year’s annual competition, which was sponsored by Newspring Center and the HCC Center for Entrepreneurship. Newspring is a local social entrepreneurship, nonprofit organization founded by Robert Westheimer dedicated to creating economic opportunities for residents of Spring Branch.

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Goodyear-based Inventure Group, owner of the snack food brands including Poore Brothers, has announced plans to change its name to Inventure Foods.

The name change was prompted by the company’s increased focus on “intensely different” food production over the past several years.

CEO Terry McDaniel said in a press release that keeping Inventure, which is a combination of the words “innovative” and “new venture”, in the company name was important to address the company’s core standards.

“We’ve narrowed our focus over the past several years from a diversified holding company to a food maker and marketer, and our new identity captures our passion for creating specialty food products that are innovative and delicious,” McDaniel said in the release.

This is the second name change in Inventure history. In 2006, it changed its name from Poore Brothers Inc. to Inventure Group to cover the company’s other brands, such as TGIFridays, Jamba and Tato Skins. Through both name changes, the company has continued to trade by the same ticker (Nasdaq:SNAK).

Inventure Group’s stock didn’t take as big a hit as some Thursday. Closing price fell slightly to $3.18 per share, down 26 cents. Over the past year the stock price has hovered between $2 and $4 per share. Revenue for 2009 came in at $121 million, up from $113 million in 2008. Net income increased to $3.78 million from $2.37 million.

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Harris Corp. has entered into an agreement to buy privately held SignaCert Inc., an IT compliance solutions provider.

The terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Harris officials said the deal will expand its position as a leading provider of cyber solutions for government and commercial customers. Portland, Ore.-based SignaCert’s customers include government, financial services and health care companies.

“This acquisition will expand our presence in the growing $10 billion cyber solutions market,” said Dale Meyerrose, vice president and general manager of Harris Cyber Integrated Solutions. “Acquiring SignaCert will strengthen our cyber leadership team, and Harris will be better positioned to provide solutions that address the national priority of enhancing critical cyber infrastructure.”

Melbourne-based Harris Corp. (NYSE: HRS) is an international communications and information technology company serving government and commercial markets worldwide.

The company has $5 billion of annual revenue and more than 15,000 employees.

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Foreclosure activity in the St. Louis region spiked in April as banks pulled the trigger on more repossessions after several months of delay.

The number of houses either set for a foreclosure sale or actually taken back hit its highest level since September, according to data from RealtyTrac, and jumped 21 percent from the same month last year. In all, 1,090 houses were given an auction date and 789 repossessed in the 17-county metro area.

It’s a troubling sign after several quieter months on the foreclosure front but one that housing advocates have been warning about. Banks have been delaying foreclosures and offering trial modifications, with mixed results. And stubbornly high unemployment means more borrowers are strapped for cash to pay their mortgages, regardless of interest rates.

The rough month for St. Louis comes as national foreclosure rates appear to be plateauing. RealtyTrac reported that foreclosure activity nationwide fell 2 percent from last April, its first year-over-year decline on record.

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Main Street’s job hemorrhaging has slowed.

Companies with fewer than 50 workers added a net 1,000 jobs in April, according to a report released Wednesday from payroll processor ADP. But the upswing actually began last month: ADP (ADP, Fortune 500) revised its March data to reflect a gain of 4,000 positions, marking the first month in nearly two years that small companies expanded their payrolls.

But even as the pink slips have slowed, they’ve left behind a massive jobs shortfall. Small companies have shed 3 million workers since the recession began, by ADP’s count.

In a speech Tuesday before the Business Council, a group of CEOs from major companies, President Obama emphasized the need to rebuild the country’s decimated employee rolls.

"Last year, the economy was in freefall. Today, the economy is growing again," Obama said. "Now, by no stretch of the imagination can we declare victory. Not until the millions of our neighbors who are looking for work can find work. … Spurring job creation and economic expansion continues to be our number-one domestic priority."

But many small business owners say they’re still sitting tight and holding off on new hires. The economy’s still-tentative recovery — witness Thursday’s sharp stock-market selloff — has companies treading cautiously.

Jim Houser, co-owner of Hawthorne Auto Clinic in Portland, Ore., has kept headcount steady at the auto body shop he opened 27 years ago. One longtime employee retired, and an intern was brought on in his place as a full-time worker.

"I have not felt the need to lay anybody off," Houser says — but he isn’t hiring, either.

Like many business owners, he’s felt the downturn’s effects. Customers facing expensive repairs put them off more frequently. On the flip side, drivers are invested in keeping their vehicles running: "There was a time up until 2008 that if the repair was going to be expensive, they would just go buy another car," he says. "There has been much less of that, so that has been an advantage."

Houser has plans for how his business can grow when the economy strengthens. He’d like to make the equipment and staff investments to install larger batteries in hybrid cars, making them even more fuel efficient.

But the installation is expensive, and Houser won’t spend the money to upgrade until he’s more optimistic about the stability of the economy instant payday loan no telecheck. That’s a common tactic right now: Recent small business surveys show that few owners are currently making capital investments.

"If people start loosening up with their money on maintenance or these conversions, these upgrades, then I will hire someone," he says. "But I am being very cautious. I don’t want to make a big investment that I can’t fulfill, that I can’t get the returns I hope."

A thousand miles south, in Los Angeles, online marketing company Tesla Consulting opened its doors in October 2008 — just as the economy really headed off the cliff. Eli Gladden and his two co-founders used a credit card to fund their new firm, which grew fast enough that they’ve found themselves in the market for new employees. In September, they added a marketing assistant to their staff, and in February, they made their first executive hire, bringing on a business development officer.

Still, Gladden is proceeding slowly.

"A lot of companies that were in our space and didn’t succeed grew so quickly that they weren’t in a position to handle a downturn," he says. "No one really ever thought about building a business that could scale back down. We are being really careful about bringing in new people, because we want to build a stable company that can weather storms if it has to."

Itty-bitty companies hire fastest: A separate employment survey, conducted by payroll software provider Intuit, concluded that America’s tiniest businesses are already rebounding.

Using data from around 55,000 small businesses that use Intuit’s Online Payroll system, Intuit estimated that companies with 20 or fewer workers added 66,000 new jobs in April. Since June 2009, they’ve upped their payroll by 300,000 new positions, Intuit (INTU) says.

That estimate is wildly different from ADP’s, but both surveys point to signs that for the job market, the worst is past.

And Gladden points to one silver lining to the carnage of the past two years: Companies can scoop up talented, eager workers.

"There are all these people we have worked with that are available," he says. "If we need somebody, we know we can go out and get somebody who is going to add value right away." 

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Warren Buffett offered his strongest defense yet of Goldman Sachs, saying he doesn’t believe the investment bank acted improperly in a sale of subprime-related securities at the heart of a Securities and Exchange Commission fraud case.

"I do not hold against Goldman at all that an allegation has been made," Buffett said Saturday at Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting in Omaha. He adds that he "loves" Berkshire’s lucrative investment in Goldman preferred stock and believes the firm remains the best investment bank in the world.

The fraud case and reports that the Justice Department may pursue a related criminal case have hit Goldman’s stock hard. Shares have dropped 22% in the past two weeks and closed Friday at their lowest level since last July.

But Buffett defended the bank and its CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, even as some on Wall Street are wagering the SEC case may lead to Blankfein’s departure. Asked who else should run Goldman (GS, Fortune 500) if Blankfein had to step down, Buffett said he has "never given that a thought. There’s really no reason."

The SEC stunned Wall Street two weeks ago by filing a civil fraud case alleging that Goldman misled investors in a 2007 sale of subprime-backed debt, by failing to disclose that a hedge fund manager who was betting against the investment helped to select the securities in the transaction.

The hedge fund manager, John Paulson, made $1 billion when the investment lost all its value within months. That caused major losses at two big European banks.

The SEC said Goldman deceived the investors in the deal, known as Abacus 2007-AC1, by failing to disclose the inherent conflict posed by Paulson’s bet against the portfolio.

Goldman has said it acted properly, and Buffett said he believes ACA, a bond insurer that made a $900 million bet on Abacus that was backed by Dutch bank ABN Amro, failed to weigh the risks involved.

"They made what turned out to be a dumb insurance decision," Buffett said. "I don’t see what difference it made who was on the other side of the deal."

Buffett made his comments in response to shareholder questions at the Berkshire (BRKA, Fortune 500) annual meeting.

One questioner brought up Buffett’s 1991 testimony before a House subcommittee on the Salomon Brothers Treasury bond scandal, in which Buffett - who had just taken charge of Salomon as the Treasury actions threatened to bring it down — famously promised to be "ruthless" when any employee acted in a way that hurt the firm’s reputation.

But both Buffett and his longtime investing partner, Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger, made clear they don’t view the allegations against Goldman as rising to the seriousness of that case, in which Salomon was accused of trying to manipulate the market for Treasury securities.

"There’s no question that the … press of the past few weeks hurt the company," Buffett said, adding that "the allegation of something" did not fall in his "category of losing reputation."

Munger noted that he would have voted with the two Republicans on the SEC who opposed bringing a civil fraud charge against Goldman. He and Buffett also agreed they didn’t believe Goldman had a duty to disclose to shareholders when it received a so-called Wells notice — a letter from the SEC indicating charges were likely.

And though Buffett acknowledged the past two weeks have been "painful" for Goldman, he said the allegations are actually positive, in one way, for Berkshire.

The company made a $5 billion preferred stock investment in Goldman in September 2008, at the height of the financial crisis. The shares pay Berkshire $500 million in annual dividends — or more than $15 a second, Buffett said.

Buffett said he has been expecting Goldman, as is its right, to buy Berkshire out of the costly preferred shares by paying Berkshire $5.5 billion. Berkshire would then likely reinvest those funds in safe securities paying around $20 million annually.

But with investigations swirling around Goldman, regulators aren’t likely to soon allow Goldman to repay Berkshire, Buffett said. That means the healthy dividend checks should keep rolling in for a while.

"Every day that Goldman doesn’t call our preferred is money in the bank," Buffett said. "That’s $15 a tick. Tick, tick, tick. I don’t want those ticks to go away."

Berkshire earnings soar

Buffett also reported Saturday that operating earnings at Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) rose 30% from a year ago in the first quarter, as economic activity has picked up this spring.

Berkshire posted a first-quarter profit of $3.6 billion. That reverses a year-ago loss of $1.5 billion. As always, the results were heavily affected by gains and losses on the firm’s investments and derivatives contacts.

Excluding those noisy factors, as Buffett prefers to, Berkshire’s operating profit rose to $2.2 billion in the quarter from $1.7 billion a year earlier.

The gains were driven by strong results at Berkshire’s operating businesses, which range from utilities and railroads to metalworking and furniture.

Profit at the company’s regulated businesses, including big electric generator MidAmerican Energy and recently acquired railroad Burlington Northern, more than doubled to $555 million.

Earnings at the company’s manufacturing, service and retail arms rose sharply as well, jumping 85% to $477 million.

Insurance earnings slipped from a year ago though, to $1.16 billion from $1.2 billion a year earlier. Berkshire owns auto insurance giant Geico among other insurance businesses.

While jobs are returning slowly after a long recession, "business is coming back more than slowly," Buffett told CNNMoney.com. He said March and April were "very strong months" in the company’s operating businesses.

"People have regained confidence to some degree," Buffett said. "There has been a real resurgence in demand." 

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Construction is to begin in May on a boutique hotel that Lawrence Group and St. Louis University plan for the vacant Interiors Unlimited building on Olive Street just north of the SLU campus.

The 51-room Hotel Ignacio will be named after St. Ignatius of Loyola, founder of the Jesuit order that runs SLU. The hotel, located at 3407 Olive, will open early next year, Steve Smith, president of Lawrence Group said Wednesday.

Peter Pierotti, director of real estate at SLU, said the lobby area will have rotating displays of art from university collections. The artwork will help connect the hotel and the Grand Center arts district, Smith said.

They declined to divulge the project’s cost. SLU does not publicize the cost of projects built without private donations, a university spokesman said. The project has historic preservation tax credits and $5 million in federal New Markets Tax Credits, Smith said.

Adjoining the five-story Interiors Unlimited building is Triumph Grill, which is in a structure owned by Smith.

He said the two buildings will be connected to allow the restaurant to provide the hotel’s food service.

Built in 1905 as the Morgens laundry, the Interiors Unlimited building has been vacant for years. SLU bought it and other properties in the vicinity several years ago when it considered building an arena in Grand Center.

Instead, the project eventually became Chaifetz Arena, which opened in 2008 on SLU’s southeast corner.

Hotel Ignacio will feature the usual amenities, including a business center and spa. The parking area on the building’s east side will be landscaped as part of a new main entrance. Guest parking will be on a university-owned lot just north of the hotel.

"We don’t have to create any more asphalt," Smith said.

Pierotti said the hotel will invigorate an area near the SLU campus.

"We want to get people in the street, enliven the street," he said.

As part of the deal, Lawrence will get a stake in the hotel.

Already under way a block from the hotel site is work on another project by SLU and Lawrence Group. Two buildings in the 3300 block of Locust are being renovated as 25 apartments and street-level store space.

The apartments, scheduled to open this fall, will be marketed to SLU students as well as the public.

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