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November 30, 2010

Stock futures fall ahead of key economic reports

Filed under: marketing, term — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 5:44 pm

Stocks are pointing to a slightly lower opening as investors await news on consumer confidence and home prices.

Standard & Poor’s releases its S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices for September later Tuesday morning. Economists expect home prices rose 1 percent from September 2009. That would be the smallest year-over-year increase since February.

The Conference Board’s monthly report on consumer confidence is expected to show that Americans’ mood improved a bit in November amid more hopeful signs for the economy. The report is due out later Tuesday morning.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters predict that the index will rise to 52.0 in November, up from 50.2 in October. It takes a reading of 90 to indicate a healthy economy, a level not approached since the recession began in December 2007.

Consumer confidence is watched closely by economists since consumer spending accounts for a large amount of U.S. economic activity and is critical to a strong rebound.

In corporate news, shares of Baldor Electric Co. jumped after the Fort Smith, Ark.-based maker of industrial motors said it had agreed to be acquired by Zurich-based ABB Ltd. for $63.50 a share, well above Baldor’s closing price of $45.11 on Monday. Baldor was changing hands at $63.06 in pre-market electronic trading.

Shares of Google Inc. fell 1 percent to $576.20 in pre-market trading after European regulators launched an investigation into whether the company abused its dominant position in the online search market. It was the first major probe into the online giant’s business practices.

Barnes & Noble Inc., the nation’s largest traditional book seller, is scheduled to report its fiscal second-quarter earnings before the market opens.

Ahead of the opening bell, Dow Jones industrial average futures are down 49, or 0.4 percent, at 10, 980. Standard & Poor’s 500 futures are down 7, or 0.6 percent, at 1,180. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 16, or 0.7 percent, at 2,130.

Overseas, worries that Portugal or possibly Spain will have to seek outside help to deal with their debts continued to worry investors. The euro briefly fell below $1.30 for the first time since mid-September. Asian markets fell on growing expectations that China will have to raise interest rates to keep inflation in check.

European markets were mixed. The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 0.2 percent, while Germany’s DAX rose 0.2 percent. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.9 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.7 percent.

Source

November 29, 2010

Payrolls, Manufacturing Probably Grew as U.S. Recovery Picked Up Into 2011 - Bloomberg

Filed under: marketing, small business — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 2:36 am

Payrolls and manufacturing probably expanded in November as the U.S. recovery showed signs of a pickup heading into 2011, economists said before reports this week.

Employment increased by 145,000 workers this month after a 151,000 gain in October that marked the biggest advance since May, according to the median forecast of 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Labor Department data on Dec. 3. A report from factory purchasing managers may show assembly lines kept churning as exports and business spending climbed.

More jobs and bigger paychecks are giving consumers the confidence and means to spend, brightening the outlook for retailers like Lord & Taylor and Macy’s Inc. during the holiday season. At the same time, payrolls aren’t growing fast enough to lower the jobless rate, one reason why Federal Reserve policy makers have said they will keep priming the monetary pump.

“We’re still in the early stages of the labor-market recovery,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. “We’re seeing a lot of strength in the retail sector and we’re certainly seeing a string of consistency in private payroll growth.”

The jobless rate was 9.6 percent for a fourth consecutive month in November, according the survey median. It would be the 16th month of joblessness at 9.5 percent or higher, the longest such stretch since records began in 1948. The worst recession since the 1930s caused the loss of 8.4 million jobs.

Fed Action

Fed policy makers this month began buying Treasury securities as part of a plan to pump as much as $600 billion more into the financial system in a bid to keep interest rates low and spur growth. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has been among those saying the recovery has been too slow, keeping unemployment too high and leading to a deceleration in inflation that raises the risk of deflation, or sustained and damaging price decreases.

The central bank’s report on regional economic activity, known as the Beige Book, will be released on Dec. 1. The anecdotal information will help policy makers frame the discussion of the economy when the central bank next meets on Dec. 14.

The economy feels “a lot more stable this year,” Brendan Hoffman, chief executive officer of department-store chain Lord & Taylor, said in a Nov. 26 interview with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” program. “We definitely hired more people for this season, and our hope is that we’ll keep a lot of them as we go into next year.”

More Hiring

Employment for the holiday-shopping season at Lord & Taylor, which is owned by the buyout firm NRDC Equity Partners LLC, is up 16 percent this year from last, Hoffman said.

The improving spending outlook has helped boost retailer shares business cards design. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Retailing Index, which includes Amazon.com Inc. and Macy’s, has climbed 6.9 percent this month and reached a three-year high on Nov. 24. The broader S&P 500 Index gained 0.5 percent since Oct. 29.

Manufacturing, the industry leading the U.S. recovery that began in July 2009, expanded in November for a 16th consecutive month, economists said ahead of a Dec. 1 report from the Institute for Supply Management. The group’s factory index this month was little changed at 56.5, with readings greater 50 signaling expansion.

The Tempe, Arizona-based ISM’s gauge of services, which represent almost 90 percent of the economy, climbed in November to the highest level in six months, the Bloomberg survey showed ahead of the Dec. 3 report.

Gaining Confidence

Employment gains are helping to boost consumer sentiment. The Conference Board’s confidence index climbed to 52.6 this month from 50.2 in October, economists said ahead of a Nov. 30 report from the New York-based research group.

Housing is among the areas still struggling. Home prices in 20 cities over the 12 months through September climbed at the slowest pace since the year ended in February, according to the Bloomberg survey. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index is due Nov. 30.

Pending sales of U.S. existing homes fell 1 percent in October after declining 1.8 percent the previous month, economists said ahead of a Dec. 2 report from the National Association of Realtors.

Bloomberg Survey ================================================================ Release Period Prior Median Indicator Date Value Forecast ================================================================ Case Shiller Monthly MOM 11/30 Sept. -0.3% -0.4% Case Shiller Monthly YOY 11/30 Sept. 1.7% 1.0% Chicago PM Index 11/30 Nov. 60.6 60.0 Consumer Conf Index 11/30 Nov. 50.2 52.6 Productivity QOQ% 12/1 3Q F 1.9% 2.3% Labor Costs QOQ% 12/1 3Q F -0.1% -0.2% ISM Manu Index 12/1 Nov. 56.9 56.5 Construct Spending MOM% 12/1 Oct. 0.5% -0.4% Initial Claims ,000’s 12/2 27-Nov 407 425 Pending Homes MOM% 12/2 Oct. -1.8% -1.0% Nonfarm Payrolls ,000’s 12/3 Nov. 151 145 Private Payrolls ,000’s 12/3 Nov. 159 155 Unemploy Rate % 12/3 Nov. 9.6% 9.6% Hourly Earnings MOM% 12/3 Nov. 0.2% 0.2% Hourly Earnings YOY% 12/3 Nov. 1.7% 1.7% Avg Weekly Hours 12/3 Nov. 34.3 34.3 ISM NonManu Index 12/3 Nov. 54.3 54.8 Factory Orders MOM% 12/3 Oct. 2.1% -1.1% ================================================================

To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

Source

November 25, 2010

Euro will survive debt crisis, Merkel vows

Filed under: business, online — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 8:56 pm

The 16-nation euro currency will survive the debt crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared Thursday, while insisting that investors must share the burden of bailouts starting in 2013.

Merkel’s comments came as the euro wallowed near two-month lows against the dollar and some analysts predicted it would drop further as other heavily indebted countries, like Portugal and Spain, risk following Greece and Ireland in needing a bailout. The euro was down 0.3 percent Thursday at $1.3297.

“I’m more confident than (I was) this spring that the European Union will emerge strengthened from the current challenges,” Merkel told business leaders in Berlin, referring to May’s euro110 billion bailout of Greece by the EU and IMF.

Experts say that while rescuing Greece, Ireland or Portugal is manageable for the EU’s euro750 billion ($1 trillion) emergency fund, bailing out Spain _ which is five times larger than any of the other three countries _ would test its limits and threaten the euro’s existence.

The leaders of Germany and France, the eurozone’s twin economic engines, will discuss the debt crisis in a telephone conversation later Thursday.

Merkel’s statement was echoed by the head of the EU’s bailout fund, Klaus Regling. “No country will voluntarily give up the euro _ for weaker countries that would be economic suicide, likewise for the stronger countries,” Regling said in comments printed in Germany’s Bild newspaper Thursday.

Merkel insisted on setting up new rules to deal with sovereign debt problems that would come into effect after 2013.

She stressed that there is no eurozone member at the moment that would require debt restructuring.

At an EU summit in October, Merkel pushed for the creation of a permanent crisis resolution mechanism that would ensure private creditors shoulder some of the cost of future bailouts no fax cash advance.

The new crisis mechanism is supposed to replace the euro750 billion financial backstop set up by eurozone governments and the International Monetary Fund in May, after intervention to save Greece.

Analysts and politicians have blamed Germany’s insistence to have new rules for the recent rise in interest rates on Irish, Portuguese and Spanish bonds. A statement by EU finance ministers that the mechanism would not apply to outstanding debt, but only to bonds issued after 2013, has failed to abate market tension.

The EU’s executive commission will release its plan for the new bailout rules in early December.

Earlier in the day, the Foreign Ministers of France and Germany said they were confident their nations would be able to provide swift assistance for Ireland, but warned against the danger of speculating on the next victim of the spiraling debt crisis.

French Foreign Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said Europe is facing a “speculative attack” against the euro “in which those countries that could appear weak in the eyes of speculators are put under pressure.”

Alliot-Marie underlined the importance of intervening quickly in markets to prevent further destabilization and supported Merkel’s call to set up the new bailout mechanism.

“Now we want to reinforce these regulations to have a crisis mechanism that allows us not only to react, but to prevent these speculative attacks,” Alliot-Marie said.

_______

Gabriele Steinhauser in Brussels contributed to this report

Source

November 24, 2010

Saudi billionaire buys 1 per cent stake in GM

Filed under: mortgage, term — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 5:53 am

CAIRO — The Saudi billionaire with a stake in Citigroup has invested $500 million (dollar figures U.S.) in General Motors, the U.S. auto giant whose shares returned to trading last week after its bankruptcy and bailout by Washington, his investment company said Tuesday.

Kingdom Holding Co. said Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and KHC’s buy-in amounts to 1 percent of GM’s value, with the decision to invest in the automaker based on “the global strength of General Motors brand, the relatively attractive offering price, and the company’s growth prospects in Brazil and China.”

The statement did not say how many shares were bought, or how KHC arrived at the 1 percent figure.

But the investment marks the latest expansion of Alwaleed’s expansive portfolio, which includes stakes in a broad range of international giants like Citigroup, News Corp. and Disney.

GM last week launched an initial public offering worth $15.8 billion, a move that signaled its resurrection following its fall into bankruptcy protection and the subsequent $50 billion bailout by U.S. taxpayers.

The automaker had hoped to tap into Mideast sovereign fund wealth or other weighty investors from the oil rich region. But KHC is so far the only major Gulf Arab investor to disclose an investment in the company.

“GM strongly came back to global competition, where the company was able to reduce its operating and fixed expenses, strengthen its financial position and returned to profitability,” KHC’s executive director of private equity, Ahmed Halawani, said.

“We are confident that the current management of GM is able to deliver growth and profits over the coming years. We will be able to achieve the expected return on this investment,” he said.

Source

November 22, 2010

Malaysian Economy Expands at Slowest Pace This Year as Asian Growth Eases - Bloomberg

Filed under: management, online — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 3:21 pm

Malaysia’s economy expanded the least in three quarters, adding to signs of a moderating Asian rebound prompted by diminished demand in advanced economies and appreciation in the region’s exchange rates.

Gross domestic product increased 5.3 percent in the three months through September from a year earlier, after expanding 8.9 percent in the second quarter, Malaysia’s central bank said today in Kuala Lumpur. The gain was less than the 5.9 percent median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“Exports are a dent on growth after the easy gains in the first half,” said Vishnu Varathan, an economist at Capital Economics in Singapore. “There is now a more challenging global environment and this will probably continue for the next few quarters. The pattern is similar across the region.”

The slowdown in growth backs the decision by Malaysia’s central bank to refrain from raising interest rates at its past two meetings to help the economy. A weakening global expansion threatens sales of the nation’s exporters including computer chip-assembler Unisem (M) Bhd., and has curbed GDP gains in countries from Thailand to South Korea.

Thailand’s GDP also rose at the slowest pace in three quarters as exports eased and agriculture output declined, a government report showed today. Southeast Asia’s largest economy after Indonesia expanded 6.7 percent in the three months through September from a year earlier.

Indonesia GDP

Indonesia reported a third-quarter expansion rate of 5.8 percent, slower than the 6.2 percent pace in the previous period.

Malaysia will probably see moderating growth going into the first quarter of 2011, central bank Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said today. The economy will “strengthen” in the second half of next year, she told reporters in Kuala Lumpur.

“We don’t see inflation as a major threat,” she said when asked whether growth or price pressures was the bigger challenge for policy makers next year. “It is important for us to ensure that our domestic demand remains resilient.”

Malaysia’s policy makers next meet in January to decide on borrowing costs. They left the overnight policy rate at 2.75 percent in September and November after raising it three times since early March. The inflation rate probably climbed in October to 1.9 percent, according to the median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of a report from the statistics department this week.

Interest Rate

“We believe the current level of the OPR is very supportive of economic activity as the numbers showed earlier that loan growth is between 10 to 11 percent,” Zeti said today. “We are very likely to have a growth of between 6 to 7 percent for this year.”

While International Trade & Industry Minister Mustapa Mohamed has said the Southeast Asian nation’s economy may experience some deceleration in the final quarter of 2010, Prime Minister Najib Razak said today Malaysia may still meet its expansion target of 7 percent this year.

The ringgit has climbed 10.3 percent this year against the U.S. dollar and is the second-best performing currency in Asia excluding Japan. It traded at 3.1030 per dollar as of 5:22 p.m. local time. The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index closed at a record high on Nov. 15.

The U.S. Federal Reserve said this month it will purchase $600 billion of Treasuries to spur the world’s largest economy, a move that policy makers from Asia to South America said could depress the dollar and spark capital flight to emerging markets.

Currency Gains

While Malaysia isn’t considering restricting capital inflows, the central bank will maintain “rigorous surveillance” to ensure its markets aren’t overwhelmed, Zeti said last week. The ringgit has climbed 9 percent against the dollar in the past year, a period in which Thailand’s baht gained 11 percent and Indonesia’s rupiah 6.4 percent.

“In terms of formation of asset bubble, we don’t see this problem, and if it is, we are well-positioned to take actions preemptively,” she said.

Bank Negara started raising rates before counterparts in Asia this year to reduce what it said was the risk of financial imbalances that may be caused by keeping borrowing costs too low for too long.

Malaysia’s exports, which include IOI Corp.’s palm oil and Intel Corp.’s computer chips, rose at the slowest pace in 10 months in September as shipments to the U.S. and China eased.

Malaysia’s manufacturing industry grew 7.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace this year, and exports of goods and services gained 6.6 percent, half the pace of the previous three months, according to today’s report.

Source

November 21, 2010

Daw: How a scratch on a van turned into a $150,000 bill

Filed under: legal, mortgage — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 12:25 am

It all started with a scratch on a minivan in a Guelph parking lot.

Then came a trip to a body shop, a Toronto law firm, some time off work collecting accident benefits and weeks of hands-on care at a clinic.

The Hamilton driver and two of his three passengers squeezed all they could out of his insurer, before it investigated.

But now — a decade after the incident — they have a $150,000 bill to pay.

A photo of the nine-inch scratch and a chat with the owner of the red 1999 Dodge Caravan minivan brushed by the Hamilton car persuaded the insurer that it had been duped. The woman in the van said her baby didn’t even wake up, and cups of coffee in the claimant’s Pontiac did not spill.

Faking and defrauding is hardly new. Auto insurers consider Ontario’s Golden Horseshoe the insurance fraud capital of Canada — a dubious distinction that helps to explain why drivers in the region pay such high auto insurance premiums.

What’s new is how determined little Waterloo Insurance Co. was to recover the costs for its other policyholders.

Rather than shrug off the loss as just another cost of doing business, like shoplifting, the arm of the larger Economical Group launched a civil suit against Van Tuan Doan and his passengers, Thuy Nhan Ai Le and Quang Dat Nguyen.

Waterloo asked a jury to award it all the money it paid to the claimants, plus the cost of their treatments and its cost of handling and investigating their claims — more than $62,000 in total.

It also claimed a similar amount in legal fees, plus interest charges that bring the total to about $150,000.

“So far as I know it was the first time in Canada that an insurer went after people who had made claims and said: ‘Give us the money back, you cheated us,’” says lawyer Ian Kirby, a former president of the Ontario Bar Association.

The jury sat through a seven-day trial in Guelph in 2008, and ruled in Waterloo’s favour. Only recently have appeals of that ruling been exhausted or abandoned.

The tenth anniversary of the Nov. 13, 2000, incident in the parking lot of a doughnut store has just passed.

Rocco Neglia, Economical’s determined vice-president of claims, says the doctor who saw the three claimants found them “credible, straightforward; (and that) their injuries were consistent with the nature of the motor vehicle accident.”

Neglia’s colleagues did not think so, and neither did the jury.

Kirby represented Waterloo in court.

He says he held up a photo of the scratch, and he called the driver of the van to describe what she saw and felt. (She declined to be interviewed for this story.)

Consulting engineer Sam Kodsi concluded in a report filed in court that the scratch on the van was so minor that contact between the two vehicles would have felt no more jarring than “hopping a step, plopping into a chair or looking over the shoulder.”

A doctor testified that such a low-speed impact could not have caused the injuries alleged by the three claimants.

“In insurance law there is the doctrine of good faith,” says Kirby. (The insurer must accept what a claimant says is true, unless it later finds evidence to the contrary low rates payday advance.)

“But that is a two-way street,” he adds. “If you try to get something for nothing, this case stands for the proposition that the insurance company can get it back.”

It won’t be the last time Waterloo and Economical fight back. The insurance group is seeking the return of income and supplementary medical benefits paid in two other cases, and is preparing to sue medical clinics as well.

Insurers are rarely able to persuade busy police detectives to investigate and press criminal charges in cases of suspected fraud involving a few thousand dollars each. Criminal charges must be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. But civil courts only look at the balance of probabilities. So the chances of an insurer winning an award for damages are better.

While only a minority of consumers are suspected of submitting fraudulent or exaggerated claims, many think insurers have deep pockets. But the money comes from other consumers, and in the case of Economical, the profits it retains would legally belong to its participating policyholders if it were ever to become a stockholder company.

Neglia of Economical says Ontario regulations passed in 1996 limited the ability to deny or limit medical treatments that seem excessive.

A three-day deadline was imposed on insurers to respond to medical assessments proposing treatments eligible for coverage under policy accident benefits. Before Sept. 1, 2010, insurers could not deny proposals for treatment, no matter how extensive, without the backing of one or more independent medical examinations.

A new $3,500 cap and treatment protocols now apply to the sort of minor sprains and strains that the three Hamilton residents complained about. Insurers may deny treatment plans that seem excessive after a medical review of the plans, but without paying for a full medical assessment.

“Having controls in place that at least give us a fighting chance has been good,” says Neglia, adding: “If people are going to engage in fraudulent activity, we are going to go after them.”

Collecting on court awards will be another matter.

Property records show Doan sold a three-storey home in 2002, the month after he was sued, for 38 per cent less than he paid in 1998. The buyer has the same family name. Last year she used the house to secure a $164,000 loan, more than triple what she had paid, at the prime interest rate plus 6 percentage points, an unusually high rate.

The passenger Le declared bankruptcy in 2007, before the jury award. She declared she owed nearly $73,000 but had only $700 of her own, a search of records by the Toronto Star revealed.

But Kirby points out that debts resulting from fraud are not extinguished by a bankruptcy. The three claimants will owe money until the award is paid in full.

“What (Le) did was wipe all (of her) other debts and left us as the only debtor,” says Kirby, adding: “Some days are better than others.”

jdaw@thestar.ca

Source

November 19, 2010

Ireland Turns to EU Bank Rescue After Trichet Signals ECB Support Limited - Bloomberg

Filed under: economics, legal — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 8:53 am

Ireland said it may ask for an international bailout as European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet signaled debt-laden nations can’t rely on him to keep their financial systems afloat forever.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said in Dublin he would welcome the creation of “substantial contingency capital funding” for Irish banks, as they became “unmanageable for the state itself.” In Frankfurt, Trichet said in a speech that policies first used to fight the global credit crisis can’t “evolve into a dependency as conditions normalize.”

The ECB is concerned that banks in Ireland and Greece are becoming too reliant on its unlimited money market operations and is pushing Ireland to accept a rescue funded by European Union governments and the International Monetary Fund. Irish central bank Governor Patrick Honohan said today that an agreement may amount to “tens of billions” of euros.

Lenihan said Honohan “may well be right on that, but figures haven’t yet been discussed.”

“The big difficulty is that the banks grew to such a size that they became too unmanageable for the state itself,” Lenihan said on Irish broadcaster RTE. “That’s why we have to consider external assistance to stabilize the banking system.”

No ‘Shame’

EU, IMF and ECB officials today started to study the books of Irish banks battered by the country’s property slump. Investors dumped Irish bonds last week on concern about the nation’s ability to keep its financial system afloat, forcing Prime Minister Brian Cowen’s government to abandon its refusal to seek foreign aid.

“I certainly don’t feel a sense of shame about fighting hard for this country for the last two years to ensure its financial survival,” Lenihan said.

Irish bonds rose today, pushing the yield on the country’s 10-year debt down 2 basis points to 8.31 percent at the close in London. The premium investors charge to hold the bonds over benchmark German bunds fell to 541 basis points from 554 basis points yesterday. It touched a record 652 points on Nov. 11. Honohan said that Ireland would probably pay an interest rate close to 5 percent on any loans, similar to the rate offered to Greece when it requested a bailout in April. Lenihan said it would be “very desirable” to create a banking fund that didn’t have to be drawn down. An agreement has not yet been reached

“It will be a large loan because the purpose of the amount to be advanced, or to be made available, is to show Ireland has sufficient firepower to deal with any concerns of the market,” Honohan said. “We’re talking about a substantial loan.”

Balancing Act

Ireland’s woes, which follow the near-collapse of Greece’s finances earlier this year, contrast with the strength of economic growth in Germany. Europe’s largest economy expanded at the fastest pace since 1990 in the second quarter and business confidence rose to the highest since May 2007 last month.

That’s confronting the ECB with a balancing act as it tries to prevent Germany from overheating while propping up the financial systems of the euro region periphery paydayloans.

“The ECB appears very uncomfortable with the role it has been forced to play in this ongoing drama,” said David Mackie, chief European economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London, “A central bank’s lender of last resort role is not meant to fund fifteen-to-twenty percent of the banking sector’s balance sheet on an open-ended basis.”

Emergency Exit

Underscoring the ECB’s reluctance to be blown off course, Trichet emphasized the central bank’s willingness to withdraw emergency measures if needed next year. The ECB’s benchmark rate is currently at a record low of 1 percent.

“We consider that we are not bound to unwind non-standard measures before considering interest-rate increases; we could do one or the other or both,” he said.

Ireland’s banking crisis has added to the nation’s fiscal burden after the recession and a real-estate crash eroded tax revenue. Talks with the EU and the IMF may shift to the government’s finances after Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said on Nov. 16 that Ireland’s banking woes are “spilling over to the sovereign.” An EU official familiar with the talks said Nov. 16 that a package may clear the way for the government to stay out of the bond market for an extended period.

Fitch Review

Fitch Ratings said today it will review its grade for Ireland “in light of any package agreed with the IMF and EU.”

The review will include an assessment of “the likelihood that it would allow Irish banks and in particular the government to regain access to market funding at an affordable cost,” Fitch said in a statement. It lowered Ireland’s credit grade to A+ from AA- on Oct. 6 and said the country was on a “negative outlook.”

Lenihan is due to publish details of a four-year, 15 billion-euro plan to lower the budget deficit this month and his 2011 budget on Dec. 7. Ireland’s government has said the final cost of its bank bailout may amount to 50 billion euros ($68 billion), about one third of gross domestic product.

Honohan said today it’s “true that the banks need additional confidence” even after the government pumped billions of euros into lenders including Allied Irish Banks Plc and Anglo Irish Bank Corp. “Our efforts, the huge sums put in by the government to support the banks, have not generated sufficient confidence yet” among investors, he said.

Allied Irish subordinated notes tumbled today on speculation any bailout by the EU and IMF will impose losses on bondholders.

The bank’s 12.5 percent subordinated bonds due 2019 were quoted at a bid price of about 45 percent of face value, according to Jefferies International in London, down from 100 percent in September. Credit-default swaps insuring 10 million euros of the debt cost 5.1 million euros in advance and 500,000 euros annually, according to CMA.

Source

November 17, 2010

Higher factory output lifts hopes for economy

Filed under: loans, money — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 7:44 am

U.S. factories renewed hopes that they can be an engine of economic growth by revving up production of big-ticket goods for consumers and businesses in October.

Overall production at the nation’s factories, mines and utilities was unchanged last month _ but that was only because of a sharp drop in utility output due to warmer-than-normal weather, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday.

The key manufacturing sector gained 0.5 percent last month, led by increased output of long-lasting goods such as autos, appliances and business equipment. The result was boosted by steel, machinery and chemical producers.

The Fed also revised September’s factory production to a 0 cheap payday loan lenders.1 percent gain. Earlier reports had said factory output fell by 0.2 percent that month, its first decline since the recession ended.

Factories are the largest component of industrial production. They helped lead the economy out of recession but have grown more slowly in recent months. October’s solid gain eased fears that the manufacturing recovery could stall, weighing down the broader economy.

The report shows that manufacturing will grow faster than the broader economy through 2013, said Daniel Meckstroth, chief economist at the trade group Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI. Meckstroth said demand for factory goods is growing overseas, while U.S. consumers and businesses still are making purchases that they put off during the recession.

“Strong growth in the third quarter just confirms that the fourth quarter will be strong as well,” Meckstroth said. “People have been postponing auto purchases and furniture purchases, and I don’t think you’ve scratched the surface on (demand from) business equipment spending and exports.”

Production by utilities fell by 3.4 percent in October, as warm weather eased demand for electricity and gas heat same day pay day loan. Mines produced 0.1 percent less.

U.S. industry operated at 74.8 percent of its capacity in October, unchanged from September.

Factory production is still 9.2 percent below its pre-recession peak in Dec. 2007, Meckstroth said. He said the manufacturing sector shrank more than the broader economy during the recession, so it must grow more quickly to recover from the bust.

Source

November 16, 2010

China’s Leading Economic Index Rises for Fifth Month as Growth Stabilizes - Bloomberg

Filed under: management, uk — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 8:56 am

An indicator of China’s economic outlook rose for a fifth month in September, adding to evidence the nation’s expansion has stabilized.

The Conference Board’s leading index rose 0.6 percent to 150.8, according to a preliminary report from the New York-based research organization, posted on its website today. The reading compared with a gain of 0.7 percent in August.

The gains “suggest the economy is likely to expand steadily through early 2011,” said William Adams , resident economist for The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “However, weakening consumer sentiment and tighter monetary policy may be a concern going forward.”

A more-than-forecast acceleration in inflation to 4.4 percent, announced Nov. 11, stoked speculation that the central bank may further tighten monetary policy as the Chinese economy maintains momentum. Interest rates will rise again before year- end after an increase in October that was the first since 2007, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

The Conference Board’s coincident economic index for China, a measure of current activity, increased 0 cash advance in one hour.7 percent in September to 191.6 after gaining 1 percent in August.

October’s inflation rate was higher than analysts’ estimates, while third-quarter economic growth was 9.6 percent from a year earlier. Besides raising rates, the central bank has ratcheted up lenders’ reserve requirements and scrapped a crisis policy of pegging the yuan to the dollar.

The six components of the leading index are loans by financial institutions, raw-material supplies, deliveries and new export orders information from the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, consumer expectations, and total floor space started. The central bank publishes the first two components and the statistics bureau releases the other four.

–Sophie Leung, Paul Panckhurst. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Lily Nonomiya

Source

November 14, 2010

Asian-Pacific leaders vow to work for freer trade

Filed under: management, small business — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 5:24 pm

Asian-Pacific leaders endorsed a blueprint for future growth Sunday that calls for pushing ahead with free trade agreements and rolling back protectionist measures put in place during the financial crisis.

Wrapping up the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the leaders of 21 economies put aside differences over currency policies to voice a strong commitment to increasing the trade and investment crucial to the region’s growth and resilience.

Leaders representing the U.S., China, Japan, Russia and other regional economies also agreed on the need to reduce trade imbalances and government debt and avoid sharp, potentially disruptive fluctuations in exchange rates.

While many participants remained at odds over currency policies and other issues, they appeared to agree on the vital role freer trade can play in sparking growth.

“We reaffirm our unwavering commitment to achieving free and open trade and investment in the region,” the leaders said in a declaration released after the talks ended Sunday.

The leaders also agreed to take “concrete steps toward realizing a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific,” but set no timetable. The declaration said this goal should build on regional groupings such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a U.S.-backed free trade agreement that nine APEC members are negotiating.

At APEC, where congeniality usually trumps conflict, leaders of the world’s three largest economies pledged Saturday not to backslide into retaliatory trade tactics, a day after discord over such issues marred the meeting of the Group of 20 major economies in Seoul, South Korea.

The 21 APEC members, whose economies account for more than half of all world commerce, have agreed to refrain from imposing any fresh barriers to trade and investment, or measures to stimulate exports, until the end of 2013.

“We commit to take steps to roll back trade distorting measures introduced during the crisis,” said the declaration titled “Yokohama Vision.” The statement acknowledged that some economies may have resorted to emergency tactics to blunt the impact of the global slowdown.

Asia’s robust and resilient growth has hinged on trade, and APEC, founded in 1989, has made knitting the region closer together its main objective.

The document also notes a need to reduce trade imbalances and government debt to help ensure stable and sustainable economic growth. In a rare reference to contentious currency issues, it includes a pledge to move toward more “market-determined exchange rate systems.”

Washington contends that China’s currency, the yuan, is significantly undervalued, giving Chinese exporters an artificial advantage in overseas markets and contributing to the huge U.S. trade deficit. China and some other countries have slammed the U.S. for printing money to help spend itself out of recession, a policy they say is driving the value of their own currencies higher, flooding their markets with excess cash and fueling inflation.

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