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October 22, 2011

For investors, playing it ’safe’ can be risky

Filed under: money, news — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 1:28 am

Investors remain anxious to find safety even as the stock market moves back toward positive territory for the year.

They’re on pace to yank more than $20 billion out of stock funds this month, the fourth time in the last five months, scarred by the volatility over everything from the sluggish economy to Europe’s debt crisis to the threat of another global recession.

Despite the recent market uptick, there’s still plenty to worry about.

Fears remain that the Greek government may fail to pay its massive debts, which would wreak widespread financial havoc. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hasn’t backed off from his statement early this month that the economic recovery “is close to faltering.” And investors aren’t fully convinced that the selloff that pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 index down 14 percent in the third quarter has run its course.

All the added uncertainty fuels any temptation to abandon stocks, as many already have done.

But “playing it safe” comes at a cost. Over the long run, fleeing to cash or buying Treasurys may be even more dangerous in this era of low interest rates as well as low returns. It can do permanent damage to your money’s buying power and your retirement prospects.

That’s the message financial advisers have been hammering home to clients who want to abandon the stock market, fearing a repeat of the 2008 meltdown or who are simply fed up with all the plunges.

Disillusioned investors, too, risk chasing an illusion of safety. So-called safe havens aren’t all that safe anymore.

“This is what I say to clients: `There is no safety’,” says Femi Shote, an investment adviser with Asset Harvest Group in McLean, Va. “What I preach is resilience, not safety.”

Hints of improvement in the latest corporate results hold out hope for investors, while highlighting the risk of being on the sidelines. Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, says the stock market is “pretty cheap” after all the selling and could come back quickly.

“All this volatility doesn’t engender a lot of confidence,” LaVorgna says. “But some good news can quickly restore it. If it looks like the economy is still growing and there’s some resolution in Europe, we could have the tonic for a powerful rally.”

Whether that occurs soon or not, here’s a look at the numbers confirms the meager payoffs of playing it safe.

_ Cash: Although it can provide a sense of security, cash doesn’t hold its value well over time. The average yield on a money-market account is just 0.54 percent, according to Bankrate.com. Even the best-paying online savings accounts pay 1 percent or less. As recently as the summer of 2008, just before the financial crisis hit full-force, you could earn 5 percent on such accounts.

Certificates of deposit also pay poorly. The highest rates available are 1.15 percent on a one-year CD and 2.2 percent on a five-year CD.

_ U.S. Treasury notes: The safety of bonds is less rewarding than it used to be. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell to a record-low 1.71 percent last month and remains near 2 percent.

_ Gold: It is far too speculative to be used wisely as protection against a falling stock market. But gold has been embraced by investors worried about rising U.S. debt, the possibility of inflation and a spreading European debt crisis. More and more piled in as the price nearly tripled in four years, reaching a record $1,891.90 on Aug. 22.

Since then, it has tumbled all the way back near $1,600.

Aside from gold’s recent slide, a market-weary investor might reason that at least cash and other options offer less downside risk than stocks and the most protection for their accounts.

Investment experts, however, consider that thinking short-sighted quick cash. If you’re too conservative, they note, you can outlive your money.

Inflation historically averages about 3 percent, so putting money aside that earns less than 1 percent means its value is eroding over time. Keeping money in the stock market is the likeliest way to stay ahead of inflation, or at least keep pace.

Even in a period that included two sharp declines in the market, the S&P 500 index had an average annual return of 7 percent for the 15 years from mid-1996 through June 30. That’s hard to match elsewhere.

Investors who ditch stocks are removing future growth from their portfolios and need to compensate elsewhere.

“When you sell, you need to simultaneously increase the amount you’re contributing to that account,” says Stuart Ritter, a certified financial planner for T. Rowe Price in Baltimore. “Or if you’re in retirement, you need to withdraw less. Otherwise you have no chance to keep up with inflation.”

Then there’s what economists call the opportunity cost — what you miss out in the long haul by leaving.

Over the longer term, the case for staying in stocks is even more compelling. History says the market is highly unlikely to decline over any 10-year period, recent times notwithstanding. On a rolling basis, the S&P 500 has produced losses in only four out of 76 different 10-year periods since 1926, according to a T. Rowe Price analysis.

Those who want to keep their cash on the sidelines until the market calms down, even for a few days, do so at risk of missing a comeback. An investment that excluded the best 10 days of the S&P 500 in the past decade would have posted an annual loss of 1.5 percent rather than a gain of 5.3 percent.

Investors who sat out even part of the 2009-11 bull market learned the hard way.

When panicked clients call Joe Adkins of Financial Advisors International with a request to sell after seeing the Dow drop hundreds of points, the Orlando, Fla., money manager offers a ready reminder. Had they sold stocks in March 2009 when the market bottomed and bought back in in December 2009, he tells them, they would have missed a 4,000-point gain in the Dow — nearly two-thirds of the two-year bull-market rally.

“You shouldn’t manage your money based on the headlines,” his advice goes. “Just weather the storm, because if you go to cash you risk running out of money.”

Besides telling clients to stick with the market, many advisers are steering them toward large, stable, blue chip stocks with a history of paying annual dividends of 3 percent or more.

Others recommend sinking a small percentage of holdings into alternative investments _ a catch-all term for such instruments as hedge funds and commodities. Alternative investments can be used as a tool to reduce overall risk through diversification. But the complexity, cost and lack of liquidity typically don’t make those the safest of investments, either.

Ultimately, those who can’t tolerate short-term risk for the likelihood of long-term gains may find a comfort level with simply a smaller percentage of their money in stocks.

They just have to realize that caution will probably cost them in the end, according to Pat Dorsey, director of research and strategy for the Sanibel Captiva Trust Co. in Chicago.

“Certainly if you are just a very nervous person, prone to getting out of the market every time the Dow drops 2 or 3 percent, having higher cash or bond allocation may make sense,” Dorsey says. “But you’ve got to dial down your (lifestyle) expectations for the future if you do that.”

Source

September 12, 2011

Storm aims at Mexico with 10 oil workers missing

Filed under: economics, news — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 12:12 am

Authorities on Mexico’s gulf coast are preparing for Tropical Storm Nate, while air and sea search teams hunted for 10 oil workers missing since abandoning a disabled research vessel in stormy waters.

Forecasts said Nate was still moving toward the coast very slowly, but was expected to pick up some speed Saturday. They said the storm would approach the coast Sunday, mostly likely just below hurricane strength.

Mexico’s state oil company, Petroleos Mexicanos, had two ships searching for the missing oil workers. A port official said Friday that they included four Americans, four Mexicans, one from Kazakhstan and a 10th of unconfirmed nationality.

The workers, employees of Houston-based Geokinetics Inc., called for help Thursday afternoon after leaving a vessel known as a liftboat, the Trinity II, on an enclosed life raft.

“We’re deeply concerned about the incident in the Gulf of Mexico involving our employees and others who had to abandon a disabled liftboat due to conditions brought about by Tropical Storm Nate,” Geokinetics spokeswoman Brenda Taquino said.

A liftboat can lower legs to the sea floor and then elevate itself above the water level. This one was being used as a recording vessel and housing for the crew, and it was in waters about 25 feet (8 meters) deep.

Randy Reed, president of the vessel’s owner, Trinity Liftboat Services LLC in New Iberia, Louisiana, was unavailable for comment Friday, a person answering the phone at his office told The Associated Press. But Reed told the Advertiser newspaper in Louisiana that the rescue effort involved boats, helicopters and aircraft conducting a grid search of the area where they went missing in the Bay of Campeche.

“We’re optimistic. They’re good seamen. They’re professionals at what they do,” Reed said. “The life raft is out there, we just haven’t found it yet … We’re all working diligently to locate the raft so we can locate our loved ones.”

The captain of the 94-foot(28.6-meter), 185-ton Trinity II reported they were abandoning the vessel about midday Thursday, and a ship several miles (kilometers) away also reported seeing the crew enter the life raft.

But there had been no communication since.

The Mexican navy said Friday night that sailors had reached the Trinity II and found no crew. It said it had a plane, three helicopters and four boats searching for them.

Taquino said the life raft was a sealed capsule containing enough food and water to last for several days, but there was no way to communicate with it.

Tropical Storm Nate was drifting slowly west-southwestward at about 4 mph (6 1/2 kph) over the southern gulf late Friday with maximum sustained winds of near 50 mph (80 kph), according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. It was centered about 205 miles (330 kilometers) east-northeast of Veracruz. Forecasters said it was expected to hit Mexico’s gulf coast Sunday possibly as a hurricane.

A tropical storm warning was declared along the coast from Tampico to Veracruz. A hurricane watch also was posted for the coast, meaning there was a chance the storm could strengthen into a hurricane.

Pemex said it had evacuated 473 workers from platforms off the coasts of the gulf coast states of Veracruz and Tamaulipas. Mexico’s gulf ports were closed to navigation.

Tropical Storm Maria, meanwhile, headed toward the Lesser Antilles at the eastern end of the Caribbean late Friday, while rain from what had been Tropical Storm Lee continued inundating a wide portion of Pennsylvania and other northeastern states, leaving at least seven dead.

Maria’s maximum sustained winds Friday night were near 45 mph (75 kph), with some slight strengthening possible, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. It was moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 kph).

A tropical storm warning was in effect for a host of islands: Antigua, Anguilla, Barbuda, Montserrat, Nevis, St. Kitts, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, Guadeloupe, St. Maartin, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy, St. Marteen, Martinique, Dominica, and Puerto Rico including Vieques and Culebra.

On its current forecast track, Maria’s center would reach the Leeward Islands early Saturday and be near the Virgin Islands by Saturday night, the hurricane center said.

Out in the Atlantic, Hurricane Katia was moving northeast over open water after passing between the U.S. and Bermuda. Despite not hitting land, the hurricane center said large swells generated by the Category 1 storm would continue affecting the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.

Katia was centered midway between Bermuda and Nova Scotia and was moving northeast near 46 mph (74 kph). It had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 kph). The long-term forecast indicated it could reach Scotland as a storm on Monday.

Source

August 11, 2011

St. Louis foreclosures fall again in July

Filed under: news, uk — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 10:40 am

Here’s a piece of bright news on this otherwise gloomy economic week.

Foreclosures are down. Again. For the sixth month in a row.

The number of houses in the later stages of the foreclosure process in metro St. Louis fell 41 percent in July, according to data firm RealtyTrac. They recorded 1,234 filings, the second-slowest month here in three years. It’s the fourth straight month of at least a 20 percent year-over-year decline, and for 2011 as a whole, filings here are down 22.4 percent.

For a few months, RealtyTrac suspected most of the slowdown was because of processing delays by banks, as lenders made sure they dotted every ‘i’ in the wake of last fall’s “robo-signing” scandals. Now, though, they think the many efforts to help troubled borrowers stay in their houses may, finally, be paying off.

The delays, said Chief Executive James Saccaccio, plus the ’smorgasbord of national and state-level foreclosure prevention efforts … may be allowing more distressed homeowners to stave off foreclosure.”

Until the economy turns around, he said, any such relief will be temporary. But some say the economy can’t turn around until the housing market at least stabilizes. And the housing market won’t stabilize until foreclosures get back to a manageable rate

August 8, 2011

European Central Bank to buy government bonds

Filed under: economics, news — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 4:48 am

The European Central Bank says it will “actively implement” a bond-purchase program that could boost Spanish and Italian bonds and drive down interest yields that threaten those countries with financial disaster.

Sunday’s statement from bank President Jean-Claude Trichet comes as global finance officials discussed ways to ward off more turmoil ahead of the opening of financial markets on Monday, the first substantial trading after the U.S. lost its triple-A bond rating from Standard & Poor’s on Friday.

Officials from the Group of 20 rich and developing countries also held talks aimed at minimizing market shocks. G-7 officials were reportedly to confer before market open in Asia as well.

The G-7 includes Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the U.S. and Japan, while the G-20 includes those countries and others with large and emerging economies.

The burst of activity on a Sunday in August underscored how government debt levels in Europe and the U.S. have unsettled financial markets _ and sharpened fears that debt troubles could derail the global recovery from the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

The statement from the ECB, issued after a conference call among its officials, did not say which countries’ bonds it would buy.

But the beneficiaries are expected to be Italy and Spain, market analysts say. Italy and Spain are trying to avoid the spiraling interest rates that forced Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek bailout loans. Purchases could drive up bond prices, which move in the opposite directions from interest yields.

Last week, yields for both countries were above 6 percent, moving toward the levels that upended the three smaller countries. Italy in particular is regarded as too large for Europe’s euro440 billion bailout fund to rescue, raising the possibility of a financial disaster that could devastate the eurozone economy.

Analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland said recent moves by Italy to strengthen its finances helped bring the ECB to its decision. The bank was reluctant to come to the rescue unless governments first close the holes in their finances.

The bank statement Sunday said it was “essential” for them to follow through on their commitments.

Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi said last week that Italy would balance its budget in 2013, a year earlier than previously expected, and speed up other budget measures.

“The ECB will start a large scale bond buying of Italian and Spanish sovereign bonds on Monday morning in our view as euro area governments have signed up to additional fiscal measures where needed,” they said.

They said the purchases could run euro2.5 billion ($3.5 billion) a day and “will stop the collapse of the bond market in countries under stress.”

Eurozone officials agreed at a summit July 21 to give their bailout fund the ability to buy government bonds. But national parliaments are on summer break and have not approved the change yet, leaving the ECB as the last resort as market turmoil increased.

Italy has debt equivalent to 120 percent of annual economic output, the second highest in the eurozone behind Greece, and weak prospects for economic growth that would help pay it down.

Last week already saw markets around the world deep in the red amid fears the global economy may be weakening and the uncertainty created by Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

In a sign of early fallout, Middle East markets tumbled Sunday on their first day of business after the downgrade. Egypt’s benchmark EGX30 index fell more than 4 percent, and other Gulf markets also were sharply lower. Israel’s benchmark TA-25 index plunged 7 percent to close at 1,074 points.

U.S. markets and others reopen Monday but have had rough patches recently. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 512 points Thursday, its worst performance since the financial crisis of 2008, and regained only a fraction of that drop Friday.

Many economists see the world’s big central banks as the last line of defense at this moment in the crisis, after policymakers in Europe and the U.S. have failed to agree on the kind of shock-and-awe moves that many investors demand.

Investors have also been calling on the U.S. Federal Reserve to start pumping money into the American economy again to help underpin the slowing economic recovery.

Source

July 11, 2011

World stocks decline after weak US jobs report

Filed under: business, news — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 2:44 pm

World stock markets slid Monday, dragged by global economic angst after an unexpectedly weak U.S. jobs report and surging inflation in China.

Wall Street’s sharp drop before the weekend extended to Asia and Europe, where investors digested news that U.S. employers created the fewest number of jobs in nine months. The 18,000 net jobs in created in June were a fraction of what many economists expected and dampened hopes that the economy is improving.

“Economic news in the U.S. was disappointing,” said a Barclays Capital report Monday. “The employment report was weaker than expected across the board _ employment, unemployment, hours, and wages all reflected the same worrisome trend.”

As trading got under way in Europe, France’s CAC 40 was off 1.3 percent at 3,861.08 and Britain’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.2 percent to 5,976.79. Germany’s DAX shed 0.9 percent to 7,337.62. Wall Street was also set for losses with Dow futures down 0.7 percent at 12,529.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average lost 0.7 percent to 10,069.53 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng retreated 1.7 percent to 22,347.23. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.1 percent to 2,157.16 while the Shanghai Composite index edged up 0.2 percent to 2,802.69.

Also dragging sentiment was data released Saturday showing China’s inflation accelerated to a three-year high in June even as the overheated economy began to cool.

Consumer prices rose 6.4 percent over a year ago, a sharp jump from May’s 5.5 percent rate, China’s government said Saturday. Communist leaders declared taming prices their priority this year, but they have been frustrated amid inflation’s steady rise.

In Australia, the government’s new carbon tax proposal battered stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 shed 1.6 percent to 4,582.30.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard unveiled a plan Sunday to force the country’s 500 worst polluters to pay 23 Australian dollars ($25) for every ton of carbon dioxide they emit.

Australia’s flagship carrier Qantas said Monday the tax will cost it 110 million to 115 million Australian dollars ($118 million to $123 million) for the 2013 financial year and lead to an increase in passenger fares.

Qantas Airways shares tumbled 3.3 percent, and Virgin Blue Australia Holdings fell 2.9 percent.

Another big loser in Australia was Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp., which fell more than 5 percent. The 80-year-old CEO arrived in London over the weekend to tackle a phone-hacking crisis that led to the quick demise of his best-selling Sunday tabloid, the News of the World.

In Tokyo, chip-related shares tumbled after Credit Suisse downgraded its rating on Elpida Memory Inc. to “underperform” from “neutral.” The issue fell more than 13 percent, while chip equipment maker Tokyo Electron Ltd. slid 2.9 percent.

“PC demand continues to slump, reflecting market saturation in advanced countries, and the severe delay in the Chinese laptop market staging a recovery,” Credit Suisse analyst Hideyuki Maekawa said of DRAM chips.

In New York Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 62.29, or 0.5 percent, to 12,657.20.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 index fell 9.42 points, or 0.7 percent, to 1,343.80. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite dropped 12.85, or 0.4 percent, to 2,859.81.

Oil prices fell to below $96 a barrel Monday in Asia amid signs of a struggling U.S. economy.

Benchmark oil for August delivery was down $1.29 to $94.91 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude gave up $2.47 to settle at $96.20 on Friday.

In London, Brent crude was steady at $118.33 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

The euro was trading at $1.4124. The dollar was changing hands for 80.75 yen.

Source

May 31, 2011

German government decides to shut down all nuclear power plants by 2022

Filed under: news, online — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 8:12 am

Germany

May 28, 2011

Belarus’ president threatens to ban foreign media

Filed under: Uncategorized, news — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 2:08 am

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has threatened to ban some foreign media organizations from working in the country after what he described as alarmist coverage of the deepening financial crisis.

Lukashenko directed his harshest criticism Friday at the Russian media, since many Belarusians watch Russian television.

He also ominiously criticized Belarusian journalists working for foreign organizations and ordered the government to “make sure those media organizations no longer work on our territory.”

The National Bank this week cut the value of the Belarusian ruble against the dollar almost in half, which set off panic buying.

Belarusians are buying up goods and lining to get dollars or euros in an attempt to protect their savings.

Source

May 5, 2011

Indonesia’s Growth Slows, Giving Room to Extend Rate-Rise Pause - Bloomberg

Filed under: money, news — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 8:39 am

Indonesia’s economic growth slowed last quarter as investment eased, boosting scope to extend a pause in interest-rate increases after inflation moderated.

Gross domestic product in Southeast Asia’s largest economy rose 6.5 percent in the three months through March from a year earlier, the Central Bureau of Statistics said in Jakarta today. It gained 6.89 percent in the previous quarter, according to previously reported data. The first-quarter number was lower than the 6.58 percent median forecast of 14 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

“Investment wasn’t as good as in the fourth quarter last year,” Juniman, chief economist at PT Bank Internasional Indonesia in Jakarta, said before the announcement. “Private consumption was the main supporter of economic growth last quarter as inflation eased.”

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono aims to expand the economy at an annual average rate of 6.6 percent, partly by boosting investment in roads, railways and ports. The rupiah’s rise against the dollar is the second highest among Asia’s 10 most-traded currencies this year, as officials permit gains to restrain price pressures fueled by the growth.

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell 0.2 percent as of 11:19 a.m. local time today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rupiah declined 0.2 percent to 8,568 per dollar, and has risen 5 percent in 2011. Bank Indonesia will provide “more room” for the currency to appreciate to reduce import costs, Deputy Governor Budi Mulya said in Jakarta last week.

Interest Rates

The central bank kept its benchmark rate at 6.75 percent in April after raising it in February by a quarter of a percentage point, which was the first increase since October 2008. Consumer prices climbed 6.16 percent last month from a year earlier, easing from a 6.65 percent pace in March.

Prices probably won’t increase significantly in May and may fall slightly, Rusman Heriawan, chairman of the statistics office, said on May 2.

Asian nations from India to China have extended rate increases this year to damp inflation stoked by oil at more than $100 per barrel, costlier food and economic expansion. The Malaysian and Philippine central banks will consider raising rates at policy meetings today, while India boosted borrowing costs two days ago for the ninth time since mid-March last year.

Total investment in 2011 is expected to increase to 240 trillion rupiah ($28 billion), 170.4 trillion rupiah of which will come from foreign direct investment, Azhar Lubis, deputy chairman at Indonesia’s Investment Coordinating Board, said April 20.

Investment Level

Investment rose 27.3 percent to 53.6 trillion rupiah in the three months to March 31 from the same period a year earlier, less than the 58.9 trillion rupiah the previous quarter, according to the board’s website.

Imports surged 32 percent to a record in March from a year earlier, the Central Bureau of Statistics said three days ago. Exports increased 27.5 percent.

Indonesia’s central bank estimates the economy may expand as much as 6.5 percent this year and 6.4 percent in the second quarter.

Growth in the world’s fourth-most populous nation has prompted companies to raise prices as demand and commodity costs increase.

PT Lippo Karawaci, Indonesia’s largest property developer, increased its sales target to 3 trillion rupiah this year from 2 trillion rupiah last year, Jopy Rusli, a director at the company, said by telephone last month.

PT United Tractors, Indonesia’s biggest heavy equipment seller, expects to sell 7,000 units of Komatsu Ltd. (6301)’s heavy equipment this year, a 29 percent increase from 2010, due to strong demand from coal miners, Finance Director Gideon Hasan said in Jakarta on May 2.

Source

April 19, 2011

Nissan to fix software glitch in electric car

Filed under: management, news — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 3:41 am

Nissan says it will fix a software glitch on 5,300 Leaf electric cars worldwide.

The company says owners of a small number of Leafs have reported that the car won’t start after they’ve turned it off.

About 500 Leafs sold in the U.S. are affected.

Nissan says dealers will reprogram the engine control computer. Owners will get a message on their car’s dashboard telling them to contact their dealer and they’ll also get letters. Spokesman Brian Brockman says dealers may even send someone to the owners’ homes or workplaces to fix the problem cash advance in one hour.

The company says there is no safety issue with the cars because they will not stop when they are running.

The battery-powered Leaf can go up to 100 miles on a single charge.

Source

April 6, 2011

Bernanke Says Fed Must Monitor Inflation ‘Extremely Closely’ - Bloomberg

Filed under: news, term — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 4:12 am

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said policy makers must watch inflation “extremely closely” for evidence that rising commodity costs are having more than a temporary impact on consumer prices.

“So long as inflation expectations remain stable and well anchored” and the rise in commodity prices slows, as he’s forecasting, then “the increase in inflation will be transitory,” Bernanke said yesterday in response to audience questions after a speech in Stone Mountain, Georgia.

“We have to monitor inflation and inflation expectations extremely closely because if my assumptions prove not to be correct, then we would certainly have to respond to that and ensure that we maintain price stability,” he said.

The dollar rose against the euro and yen after the comments, which are similar to both Bernanke’s congressional testimony and the statement from the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee last month. He told lawmakers March 1 that Fed officials “continue to monitor these developments closely and are prepared to respond as necessary,” while the FOMC said on March 15 that it “will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.”

The dollar rose to 84.36 yen at 10:11 a.m. in Tokyo from 84.06 yesterday after earlier touching 84.49. Against the euro, the dollar strengthened to $1.4199 from $1.4221.

Responding to another question yesterday about housing, Bernanke said that the Fed expects a “very high rate” of foreclosures this year, which harms home prices and construction and creates a drag on the recovery, which he said is “not as strong as we would like it to be.”

Price Gauge

The Commerce Department reported last week that the Fed’s preferred price gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.9 percent in February from a year earlier. Including all items, prices rose 1.6 percent, compared with a 1.2 percent 12-month increase through January.

Fed officials aim for annual inflation in the long run of 1.6 percent to 2 percent.

Bernanke, in his response yesterday, acknowledged gains in prices of commodities including metals, grains and energy. The national average price of gasoline rose to $3.55 on March 15 from $3.07 on January 1. Gasoline rose further after the Fed’s meeting to $3.66 on Apr. 3.

The FOMC, led by Bernanke, said after its last meeting that the economy is on a “firmer footing” and affirmed plans to buy $600 billion of Treasuries through June. Bernanke hasn’t said what he favors as the next move for monetary policy after that no fax payday advances.

Close to Zero

The Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate close to zero since December 2008 and last month reiterated it would remain there for an “extended period.”

Even so, some policy makers who have broken with Bernanke before are discussing the need to tighten credit. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, who dissented twice from decisions to lower borrowing costs in 2008, said April 1 in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, that an increase in growth or inflation expectations may “suggest that it is time to begin taking our foot off the accelerator and start heading for the exit ramp.”

While Bernanke’s “remarks echoed the vigilance on inflation expectations that was present in the last meeting statement, it was certainly less hawkish” than recent comments from some regional Fed presidents, Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) in New York, said in a research note.

Didn’t Discuss Policy

Bernanke wasn’t asked about and didn’t discuss interest rates. New York Fed President William Dudley, the FOMC’s vice chairman, said April 1 that faster-than-expected payroll growth in March shouldn’t alter the central bank’s bond-buying program to prop up the recovery. “I don’t see any reason to pull back from that yet,” Dudley said to reporters after a speech in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Dudley also said that “provided commodity prices level off around current levels, the effect on inflation should be transitory. But we will need to ensure that commodity-price pressures do not cause inflation expectations to become unmoored.”

Bernanke’s prepared remarks focused on regulation of clearinghouses for financial trading. Bernanke said the U.S. should subject such institutions to “strong” risk-management oversight to minimize the chance they’ll require emergency government aid.

Fed officials are “nervous” about inflation, including food and energy prices, said Jason Schenker, an economist who attended Bernanke’s speech.

“Everything is dependent, truly, on what happens with commodity prices,” Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC in Austin, Texas, said after Bernanke spoke. “If they remain very high, this is tough.”

Source

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