Samsung Dumps Short-Term Debt in Preparation for BOK Rate Rise - Bloomberg
Samsung Asset Management Co., South Korea’s largest bond-fund manager, said it’s reducing holdings of short-term government debt and buying more longer-term notes on expectations the central bank will raise interest rates.
The Seoul-based company, which oversees 66 trillion won ($60 billion) of assets in bonds, is shifting into South Korean debt with a maturity of 10 years or more and into corporate bonds, Chief Investment Officer Eugene Kim said in an interview yesterday.
“Short-term debt is hit most when interest rates begin to rise and you’d better stay away from it,” Kim said. “Our central bank may raise the base rate as much as possible in the first half and up to 3.5 percent or even higher this year.”
Nine of twelve economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict the Bank of Korea will increase the seven-day repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 3 percent when it meets on Feb. 11, joining Thailand and India in extending interest-rate increases this year. Kim said the local bond market will weaken further on selling by overseas investors after the government revived a tax of as much as 14 percent on interest income from treasury and central bank bonds held by foreigners.
“Corporate bonds, especially those of consumer financiers and credit-card issuers with better earnings outlooks, are attractive,” Kim said, without naming any companies. “I won’t be buying inflation-linked bonds because there isn’t enough liquidity yet.”
The company is reducing holdings of three-year local treasuries and shorter-term notes, according to Kim.
Trigger to Buy
Yields on 3 percent government bonds due in December 2013 were at 4.06 percent yesterday, according to prices from Korea Stock Exchange. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The won advanced 0.3 percent to close at 1,104.68 per dollar yesterday in Seoul.
“The odds are increasing that the Bank of Korea will raise the base rate to 3 percent this Friday and the market has been quickly pricing it in,” Kim said. He added that if yields on three-year bonds reach as high as 4.5 percent, Samsung may start buying again.
The yield on the 3 percent bonds has jumped 117 basis points since Dec. 7, compared with 50 basis points for equivalent 10-year debt, according to the data provided by the Korea Financial Investment Association.
The consumer-price index rose 4.1 percent in January from a year earlier, after gaining 3.5 percent in December.
China Impact
Consumer-price inflation may stay around 4 percent in the first quarter and exceed the government’s 3 percent target this year, with pressure coming from rising raw material costs and accelerating inflation in China, finance ministry Director- General Yoon Jong Won said on Feb. 1.
Asia’s fight against price gains lacks “urgency” and policy makers need to raise interest rates more aggressively to restrain inflation expectations, Morgan Stanley Asia’s Stephen Roach said in a note on Feb. 7.
President Lee Myung Bak last month declared “war” on inflation and tightened price controls, saying it must be contained at 3 percent to protect people on low incomes.
Kim at Samsung said that foreign investors have already started their exit from the South Korean bond market, disappointed at the bond taxes and emboldened to invest in riskier assets elsewhere as the U.S. economic outlook improves.
“Thai investors are no longer rolling over much of their Korean short-term bonds at maturity and global funds, including hedge funds, are shifting from debt to equities,” Kim said. “Still, Asian central banks, including China, seem to be still buying, partly for asset diversification.”
Thailand cashed out a net 249 billion won from the Korean debt market in December while China invested a net 425 billion won, according to the Financial Supervisory Service data. Net outflows by overseas investors were a record 5.3 trillion won in December, according to the data.