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Half of denverbusinessjournal.com readers who answered our latest Business Pulse question say they support John Hickenlooper in the race for Colorado governor, a higher tally than all other candidates combined.

The Business Pulse survey is not a scientific sampling, and is not an attempt to predict actual voting totals, but offers a view of what readers are thinking.

Hickenlooper, Denver’s mayor, is running as the sole Democratic Party candidate for governor.

On Thursday he announced his running mate, Colorado State University-Pueblo President Joseph Garcia.

Another 20 percent of those answering the Business Pulse question said they support Tom Tancredo, a former Republican congressman and presidential candidate who is running as an American Constitution Party candidate.

Among the two Republicans vying to succeed Bill Ritter as governor, former congressman Scott McInnis was picked by 15 percent in our unscientific survey and businessman Dan Maes by 7 percent.

McInnis and Maes are running in a mostly-mail-in GOP primary, which ends Tuesday, Aug. 10. The winner will face Hickenlooper and Tancredo on the November general-election ballot.

There were 1,383 responses to our informal multiple-choice survey, which asked: “As of now, which candidate do you favor for Colorado governor?”

Readers answered:

• John Hickenloooper — 50%.

• Dan Maes — 7%.

• Scott McInnis — 15%.

• Tom Tancredo — 20%.

• Other/don’t know — 9%.

This week’s Business Pulse question: “As of now, which candidate do you favor for Colorado senator?”

Click here to respond, and please leave a comment explaining your answer. The deadline for replies to this question is Monday at 10 a.m. MDT.

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The numbers being batted around when it comes to how much the oil spill will ultimately cost BP and the local Gulf of Mexico economies are huge. $3 billion. $14 billion. One politician put it at over $100 billion.

The range is so big because two important questions remain unanswered: When will the leak be sealed, and will most of the oil wash ashore? Until those are answered no one will know the pricetag of the damages for sure.

But there have been studies done looking at what’s broadly at stake, and the number is quite large indeed.

The four biggest industries in the Gulf of Mexico are oil, tourism, fishing and shipping, and they account for some $234 billion in economic activity each year, according to a 2007 study done by regional scholars and published by Texas A&M University Press.

Two thirds of that amount is in the United States, with the other third in Mexico.

If the Gulf of Mexico were a country, it would be the 29th largest economy in the world.

Oil and gas

Ironically, the largest chunk of that money is generated by the oil and gas industry, and they may ultimately be the ones that lose the most.

Oil and gas interests generate $124 billion or 53% of the total money, according to Jim Cato, a former economics professor at the University of Florida and one of the authors on the study.

As of Thursday, all new offshore drilling in U.S. waters in the Gulf remained closed following the sinking of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig last month, which claimed 11 lives and left an uncapped oil well leaking thousands of gallons a day into the water.

Oil production from existing wells has been largely unaffected and drillers have been busying themselves with wells begun before the explosion. But the longer the ban remains intact, the harder the economic bite.

"If the moratorium is continued through June, lost revenue from shallow water drilling is estimated at $135 million," said a letter Friday from ten senators urging a lifting of the ban.

The ban may eventually be lifted, but how much more the oil industry will have to pay for royalties or spill prevention, plus restricted access to new drilling sites, remains to be seen.

Tourism

Tourism is the second largest industry in the Gulf, and it ranks right behind oil. About 46% of the Gulf economy, or over $100 billion a year, is from tourism dollars, according to the A&M report.

With tourism, it’s not necessarily the oil that washes up on the beach that hurts the industry, but how much oil people think will wash up on the beach. And people seem to think it will be bad.

In Florida, state tourism officials recently told CNN they’re getting cancellations as far as three months out.

In Mississippi it’s even worse.

Ken Montana, President of the Mississippi Gulf Coast Tourism Commission, said cancellation rates are running at nearly 50%.

"The perception is that everybody has oil on the beach and we are all closed up," Montana told CNN. "No beaches are closed, period."

Fishing and shipping

Fishermen are perhaps the most directly impacted by the spill. The government has already closed over 20% of federal waters for fishing activities and many of them are out of work.

But commercial fishing and shipping together only account for 1% of the Gulf’s total economic activity.

While the number is small in terms of Gulf cost dollars, it does not factor in the impact a shut down in shipping could have, which could halt grain and other cargo from traveling up and down the Mississippi River.

According to the Port of New Orleans, no disruption in shipping is foreseen. The Coast Guard has set up five washing stations for ships to get scrubbed if they come into contact with the oil, but so far none have been used, said a port spokesman.

What’s at stake

Obviously, the oil spill isn’t going to shut down the Gulf’s entire economic output.

When the spill first happened, researchers at the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, who also contributed to the A&M report, estimated the economic damages might be $1.6 billion. That number included $400 million in direct economic costs, and another $1.2 million in services provided by wetlands that might be compromised - things like water filtration and such.

But that number was arrived at when the oil spill was estimated to be 1,000 barrels a day, said David Yoskowitz, chair of socio-economics at Harte.

BP (BP) estimates for the oil leak are now 5,000 barrels a day, and some say it could be 10 times that.

Moreover, both the Harte study and the A&M report only look at the Gulf of Mexico. Yet there are reports that the oil is getting caught up in the so-called loop current, which could bring it up the eastern seaboard.

"If that happens, all bets are off," said Yoskowitz.  

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Construction is to begin in May on a boutique hotel that Lawrence Group and St. Louis University plan for the vacant Interiors Unlimited building on Olive Street just north of the SLU campus.

The 51-room Hotel Ignacio will be named after St. Ignatius of Loyola, founder of the Jesuit order that runs SLU. The hotel, located at 3407 Olive, will open early next year, Steve Smith, president of Lawrence Group said Wednesday.

Peter Pierotti, director of real estate at SLU, said the lobby area will have rotating displays of art from university collections. The artwork will help connect the hotel and the Grand Center arts district, Smith said.

They declined to divulge the project’s cost. SLU does not publicize the cost of projects built without private donations, a university spokesman said. The project has historic preservation tax credits and $5 million in federal New Markets Tax Credits, Smith said.

Adjoining the five-story Interiors Unlimited building is Triumph Grill, which is in a structure owned by Smith.

He said the two buildings will be connected to allow the restaurant to provide the hotel’s food service.

Built in 1905 as the Morgens laundry, the Interiors Unlimited building has been vacant for years. SLU bought it and other properties in the vicinity several years ago when it considered building an arena in Grand Center.

Instead, the project eventually became Chaifetz Arena, which opened in 2008 on SLU’s southeast corner.

Hotel Ignacio will feature the usual amenities, including a business center and spa. The parking area on the building’s east side will be landscaped as part of a new main entrance. Guest parking will be on a university-owned lot just north of the hotel.

"We don’t have to create any more asphalt," Smith said.

Pierotti said the hotel will invigorate an area near the SLU campus.

"We want to get people in the street, enliven the street," he said.

As part of the deal, Lawrence will get a stake in the hotel.

Already under way a block from the hotel site is work on another project by SLU and Lawrence Group. Two buildings in the 3300 block of Locust are being renovated as 25 apartments and street-level store space.

The apartments, scheduled to open this fall, will be marketed to SLU students as well as the public.

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British Airways, American Airlines and Iberia have offered to give away takeoff and landing slots at London and New York airports to soothe European Union antitrust worries, EU regulators said Wednesday.

The European Commission said it would ask other airlines whether freeing up slots at London Heathrow, London Gatwick and New York’s John F. Kennedy airports would be enough to create more competition and entice rivals to start new routes from those airports to New York, Boston, Dallas and Miami.

EU spokeswoman Amelia Torres said the offer could see rivals start two extra daily flights each from London to New York and from London to Boston and one more daily service from London to Dallas and from London to Miami my credit score.

If rivals are supportive, regulators said they would move to make the three airlines’ offer legally binding and drop an antitrust case that could have racked up millions of euros (dollars) in fines.

One rival, Virgin Atlantic, said the airlines’ offer was "woefully inadequate in counteracting the anti-competitive harm of a combined BA/AA," claiming that it would hurt consumers by raising prices and destroying competition.

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Lee Sachs, a counselor to Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, plans to step down this year as the banking crisis wanes and the Obama administration winds down its emergency programs.

As an adviser on domestic finance, Sachs helped conduct stress tests on the biggest banks and reshape the $700 billion bailout. He also helped manage trillions of dollars in additional government borrowing and advised Geithner on the market implications of issues from the Greek budget crisis to housing finance.

Sachs says he’s leaving now that markets have stabilized and Geithner has had time to set up a permanent team. “I came back down here to help the president and secretary to design and execute their response to the financial crisis,” he said in an interview. “The financial system is in a much stronger position today than it was a year ago.”

His departure comes as the crisis-response team he established becomes a permanent part of the Treasury Department. A former senior managing director at Bear Stearns Cos., the New York-based investment bank bought by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in 2008, Sachs will be one of the most senior of Geithner’s advisers to step down.

“I am likely going to head back to the private sector at some point in the next couple of months,” said Sachs, 46. He says he’ll take some time off before deciding on his next move, to recover from “running 100 miles-an-hour around the clock to stabilize the financial system” alongside regulators and White House officials.

Sperling May Follow

Another Geithner counselor, Gene Sperling, may also be leaving the Treasury soon. Sperling is under consideration for the post of deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Geithner, 48, yesterday credited Sachs with showing “great judgment and skill in helping the president navigate the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression.”

One of Sachs’ legacies will be the Office of Capital Markets and Housing Finance, successor to an informal crisis- response team he helped establish in the Treasury’s domestic finance division. Led by Matthew Kabaker, a former executive at Blackstone Group LP, the unit fulfilled one of Geithner’s goals at the start of the new administration.

“In transition, we recognized that the Treasury Department did not have a staff capability to deal with capital markets and finance-related issues,” Sachs said. “We need this team.”

Fannie, Freddie

The Treasury is moving into a long-term planning phase after 18 months of primarily managing the aftermath of the financial crisis. Priorities this year include pressing for an overhaul of financial regulation and starting to design plans for the future structures of mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to bring to Congress in 2011.

Since taking office, the Obama administration has tried to change the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program from a bank rescue into a financial-stability plan. TARP, enacted in October 2008, expires in October.

Geithner’s department last year set up the Public-Private Investment Program with the goal of removing as much as $1 trillion in troubled assets from bank balance sheets. The program has moved forward on a much smaller scale, committing as much as $30 billion in government money for participating funds.

The Treasury also held several additional rounds of capital injections for small banks. Those programs drew few applicants, as banks feared customers and investors would shun firms that accepted money from the TARP.

Clinton Years

Other regulators say Sachs’ strength has been his ability to understand the government’s role in the crisis, which allowed him to start work immediately after the 2008 presidential election. He was already known on Wall Street and in Washington from his early career, which spanned 13 years at Bear Stearns followed by a tour in the Clinton administration under former secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers.

“When he called me in November, right away we were communicating, I knew I could trust him, I knew I was working with somebody who knew what they were talking about,” Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said in an interview. “He’s really knowledgeable about financial markets and financial institutions. He’s seen that world from both sides.”

Kohn, who will step down in June after a 40-year central bank career, described Sachs as “even-tempered,” with a sense of “quiet authority creditreport.” He says they worked closely together when Sachs served in the Clinton administration and spoke daily, sometimes more often, during the height of the financial crisis.

“I have found him an important ally for the Federal Reserve,” Kohn said. “He was very sensitive to the issue of Federal Reserve independence.”

Capital Injections

One example of Sachs’ influence came when regulators were debating how big banks should repay capital injections they received in 2008 at the height of the crisis. Sachs advised regulators on how quickly banks could be expected to raise private capital, as well as how markets might react.

Sachs forged ties to his current boss during the Clinton administration, when Geithner worked in the Treasury’s international affairs division. With Sachs in domestic finance, the two worked on debt crises in Russia and Asia, while also competing on the tennis court and in triathlons.

Geithner is faster. “I think he called me from home as I was crossing the finish line,” Sachs said of one shared racing experience.

Wall Street Resume

Critics said Sachs’ financial-market experience isn’t an automatic advantage. His ties to Rubin, who hired Sachs in 1998, could be seen as a liability after the country’s biggest banks required bailouts, said William Black, a law professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City.

“‘Market experience’ from individuals that screwed up the markets is an interesting concept,” said Black, who served as a federal bank regulator during the savings-and-loan crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s.

The post-crisis stigma attached to Wall Street resumes accompanied Sachs to the Obama administration: Since joining the team in late 2008, he was never nominated for a Treasury position that required Senate confirmation.

Instead, Sachs was one several counselors serving Geithner in the first months of the administration, when the Treasury Department had no Senate-confirmed senior officials other than the secretary. Congress has since confirmed Deputy Secretary Neal Wolin and a number of assistant secretaries, without approving the administration’s picks to lead the Treasury’s international affairs and domestic finance divisions.

Nominations Weighed

As a result, nominees Jeffrey Goldstein and Lael Brainard have been serving alongside Sachs, Jake Siewert and Gene Sperling as counselors, while the Senate weighs their nominations. Goldstein, a former private equity executive, has been tapped as the undersecretary of domestic finance. Brainard, who served as Clinton’s deputy director of the White House National Economic Council, has been nominated as the undersecretary for international affairs.

The lack of Senate-confirmed Treasury officials came as the White House fended off criticism from lawmakers including Senator Maria Cantwell, a Democrat from Washington state who has repeatedly faulted Obama administration proposals as being too soft on the financial industry without doing enough to close regulatory loopholes.

In the Clinton administration, market experience was viewed as an asset and not a handicap. Gary Gensler, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Clinton-era Treasury official, said he remembers being “delighted that somebody of Lee Sachs’ caliber and values was willing to join the team.”

Mariner Investment

After Clinton left office, Sachs was a partner at New York- based Mariner Investment Group, which owned a stake in at least one company that specialized in collateralized debt obligations — a type of investment that fueled the crisis.

Before joining President Barack Obama’s transition team after the 2008 election, Sachs earned more than $3 million in salary and partnership income at Mariner in 2008, according to his financial-disclosure forms.

In the 1980s and 1990s, Sachs rose to head of global capital markets and the board of directors at Bear Stearns after graduating from Ohio’s Denison College. Sachs is married to Whitney Sachs, a former attorney, and they have two 14-year-old daughters.

“You can work for the secretary of the Treasury of the United States,” said Michael Berman, president of the Duberstein Group, a Sachs family friend who helped him link up with Rubin’s Treasury. “But when it comes right down to it, the twins are in charge.”

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Irish house prices may fall for a fourth year in 2010 as the deepest recession in the country’s modern history persists, a survey of economists shows.

Home prices will shrink 9 percent, according to the median of six estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices have already fallen 27 percent from their peak in early 2007, based on a monthly index by Dublin-based Irish Life & Permanent Plc.

Ireland’s economy shrank about 7.5 percent last year, almost twice the euro-region average, as a real-estate slump spread into the rest of the economy. That pushed up unemployment and forced the government to bail-out lenders led by Allied Irish Banks Plc and Bank of Ireland Plc. Gross domestic product may shrink 0.8 percent in 2010, marking a third annual contraction, the survey showed.

“The economy is contracting, there’s still housing oversupply there,” said Dermot O’Leary, chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers in Dublin. “It’s hard to say we’ve reached a floor.”

Ireland’s recovery will lag behind the revival of many of its euro-area neighbors as companies from Aer Lingus Group Plc to Danske Bank A/S cut jobs, restraining consumer demand. The jobless rate may increase to 13 percent this year from 11.8 percent in 2009, the survey showed.

“It’s going to be a tough one,” Mark Bourke, chief executive officer of Dublin-based IFG Group Plc, said in Dublin yesterday. “There’s very little to indicate there will be a major recovery.”

Budget Gap

In addition to the economic slump, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan is facing a widening budget deficit and is cutting the wages of government workers and welfare payments business card. The actions won’t be enough to reduce the gap this year, according to the survey. Economists see the deficit averaging 11.6 percent of GDP in 2010, little changed from 2009’s 11.7 percent.

Ireland’s fiscal problems are partly related to the government’s reliance on property-related tax revenue during the boom that has since dried up. The European Commission has given Ireland until 2014 to reduce the budget gap to a limit of 3 percent of output.

“I’m confident. We as a country are far better in adversity,” Smurfit Kappa Group Plc Chief Executive Officer Gary McGann said at a Dec. 15 press briefing in Dublin. “We screw it up in the good times.”

There may be some pick-up in economic growth the second half of this year, in tandem with a continuing recovery in overseas demand, economists said, echoing forecasts from the government. The global economy is gathering strength after central banks around the world trimmed borrowing costs close to zero and injected billions of dollars in stimulus measures.

Confidence in the world economy held near a record high in December and the MSCI World Index has surged 71 percent since reaching a 2009 low on March 9. Ireland’s benchmark ISEQ index has gained 60 percent in the same period.

“Export growth is likely to return in a significant way in 2010,” said Rossa White, chief economist at Dublin-based stockbroker Davy. “Second, consumer spending will bottom early in the year and expand slightly as the year progresses.”

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Chevron Corp.’s $40 billion Australian natural gas project will drive a global hunt for construction workers and has prompted calls to ease immigration rules to prevent labor shortages and cost overruns at energy and mining projects fueling the country’s economy.

Contractors for Chevron and partners Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc in the Gorgon liquefied natural gas plant plan to pay premiums of as much as 40 percent for welders, pipe fitters, project managers and engineers, recruiters said. They expect to hire in the Middle East, Latin America and Europe.

Gorgon is the largest of more than a dozen LNG ventures in Australia targeting Asian demand for cleaner-burning fuels. It will compete for staff with Woodside Petroleum Ltd., which said Nov. 20 the cost of its $12 billion Pluto LNG project may surge by as much as $1 billion, partly because of labor expenses.

“This doesn’t bode well for Australia’s mega projects,” Woodside Chief Executive Officer Don Voelte said in a Nov. 25 interview at the Perth headquarters of the country’s second- largest oil and gas producer. “It’s going to be a stretch when more than one company is trying to build these things.”

The Chevron and Woodside investments are among more than $90 billion of resources projects expected to generate about 40,000 construction jobs in Western Australia alone, a state government report shows. Voelte wants the federal government to relax immigration regulations for overseas workers and has started an equity incentive plan to retain staff.

Labor ‘Race’

“For Woodside we believe it is a race to capture or not lose the workforce to Chevron, a significant risk for Woodside’s growth plans,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Mark Greenwood wrote in a Nov. 25 report.

About 80 natural resource ventures to be built in the next decade may increase demand for skilled workers by as much as 70 percent, Energy Minister Martin Ferguson said in a Nov. 30 speech in Perth to mark the start of construction of Gorgon on Barrow Island, a nature reserve about 50 kilometers (31 miles) off the northwestern coast.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has tasked a group of government, immigration and industry officials to help companies such as Chevron and BHP Billiton Ltd. find 70,000 workers in the next decade, making Gorgon its top priority.

“A series of cost overruns could discourage future investments,” Gary Gray, chairman of the Rudd-appointed group and Parliamentary Secretary for Western and Northern Australia, said by phone. “The urgency is to ensure as best as we can the adequacy of labor to deliver projects on time and on budget.”

Wage ‘Premium’

About 80 percent of oil and gas industry employers in Australia said in a survey they intend to increase salaries in the next 12 months, Matt Underhill, managing director at recruiting firm Hays, said from Sydney. Professionals in the pipeline industry currently earn $191,000 annually on average in Australia, he said.

“The expertise is specialized, so there’s going to be a premium paid for that type of labor,” said John Hirjee, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG in Melbourne same day payday loans. Labor may account for 10 to 20 percent of costs at Australian LNG projects, he said.

Contractors may offer workers as much as 40 percent more than they could earn in Sydney to entice them to Barrow Island, said John Downing of Downing Teal Pty. The company and other recruiting firms hiring for ventures including Gorgon will extend their search to the Middle East and Latin America, he said.

Serbian Sparks

Leighton Holdings Ltd., whose units have won A$1.3 billion of Gorgon work, has in the past hired electricians in Serbia and welders in South Korea, said spokesman Justin Grogan.

Officials with Western Australia’s Department of Training and Workforce Development have met with Chevron to discuss labor needs, Simon Walker, an executive director at the department, said in e-mailed comments.

The department is working on a proposal to tackle the looming shortage and “strategic immigration will be a key consideration factored into the plan,” he wrote.

“Capacity constraints can lead to escalating labor costs, increasing prices and ultimately, they can threaten the viability of enterprises, which negatively affects economic growth and the well-being of the population,” Walker said.

A Chevron advertising campaign to tout Gorgon includes a television commercial with the line “creating thousands of jobs and providing opportunities for generations to come.”

‘Sexy’ Gorgon

It’s a “sexy project” that should have an advantage in securing labor, Colin Beckett, the venture’s general manager, said on Barrow Island in October. A thousand applicants have chased 30 or 40 positions in some cases, he said. Welders and instrument technicians will prove harder to find.

Conditions for those living on Barrow Island, where average temperatures reach as high as 34 degrees Celsius (93 Fahrenheit), will be improved by access to the Internet, cable television, gyms, swimming pools and a golf driving range.

“We think Barrow Island will be attractive to a lot of people,” Beckett said.

One Gorgon contractor is offering A$300,000 ($280,000) for a manager to assess risk and as much as A$135,000 for a contracts administrator, according to advertisements placed by Downing Teal. Engineers will earn “well into six figures,” John Downing said.

A labor shortage that confronted Australian mining and energy during a previous boom is set to return BHP Chief Executive Officer Marius Kloppers said last month. “Just two short years ago there was a massive talent gap in the resources industry,” he said in a Nov. 18 speech. “I believe this gap will return along with demand.”

Gas project developers have built the risk of rising labor bills into their plans and are having LNG processing units built in lower-cost Asian countries and reassembled in Australia to cut expenses, Deutsche Bank’s Hirjee said.

“That’s not to say these cost blow-outs may not happen,” he said. “They could.”

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The number of signed sales contracts to buy homes rose in September for the eighth straight month, according to a real estate industry report released Monday.

The September Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) spiked 6.1% to 110.1, consolidating a 6.4% gain in August. It was the index’s highest level since December 2006, when it stood at 112.8.

The leap was far better than expected. A panel of analysts surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a 1.2% rise.

Analysts, including Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, have traced much of the improvement to the government’s first-time homebuyer tax credit program, which gives an up to $8,000 tax break to new homebuyers. It’s estimated that between 200,000 and 400,000 additional sales will have been made because of the credit.

"What we’re witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month," said Yun.

The credit lapses after Nov. 30, and the housing industry is bracing for a major turndown in sales if Congress fails to pass some kind of extension.

"Clearly, buyers were eager to get business done before the credit’s November expiration," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research. "So I wouldn’t be surprised to see some give back in pending sales over the next month or two."

Favorable long-term prospects

Any fall-off should only be temporary, however, according to Yun. Market conditions are just so favorable for buyers right now that sales should rebound quickly should they suffer through a hangover following the tax credit demise.

With home prices well off their highs and mortgage rates still extremely low, the cost of homeownership is well within the range for many Americans who are not homeowners today. There are, Yun estimates, about 3 million renters who are now financially well-qualified to buy a median-priced home.

"As long as buyers do not overstretch and stay well within their budget, a sizable pent-up demand can be tapped among financially qualified potential buyers," he said.

That will not translate into a new boom, however, according to Larson. "No explosion of pent-up demand will send markets to new heights," he said. "The economy is still not in fantastic shape."

Housing markets certainly do not seem to be out of the woods, but this latest release added to a modest winning streak of positive recent reports. Prices appear to have stabilized, with the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index up four months in a row and completed sales of existing homes at their highest level in two years.

Foreclosures, however, continue to plague many markets, adding to supplies on homes for sale, according to Yun.

"An excess of homes remains on the market despite recent improvements," he said. "Although current inventory is getting closer to price equilibrium, foreclosures will continue to enter the pipeline."

Increased pending sales are a forward-looking indicator since contract signings precede actual closings; they typically take place two to three months later. Although some contract signings fall through, a jump in signings in September usually means NAR statistics on December existing home sales will improve. 

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Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer was appointed to a second term by President Nicolas Sarkozy, extending his tenure on the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.

The six-year appointment was confirmed by Luc Chatel, Sarkozy’s spokesman, following a meeting of the French Cabinet today. The mandate begins on Nov. 1 and cannot be renewed again.

Noyer, 59, helped the French government craft its response to the economic crisis, including the bailout of Franco-Belgian lender Dexia SA and financial support for banks including BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale SA. Now he will have a hand in steering the French and European exits from recessions, while overseeing the implementation of new rules for French banks.

“Changing governors now in such a turbulent period would have been a bad sign,” said Pierre-Olivier Beffy, an economist at Exane BNP Paribas in Paris. “Noyer is a very prudent voice who has highlighted the continuing fragility of the financial system. He’ll ensure the stimulus exit isn’t too hasty.”

Banks must keep up reforms and strengthen their balance sheets, Noyer said earlier this week savings account payday advance. Referring to “impressive quarterly profits” reported by some institutions this month, he advised restraint on dividend payouts and executive compensation.

“It is striking that these performances were achieved only a few months after some of those same institutions came very close to failure,” Noyer said in an Oct. 26 speech in Singapore. “This might give the impression that the financial sector has recovered its balance and that no further reforms are necessary. Nothing could be further from the truth.”

Noyer is a career government official and a graduate of l’Ecole Nationale d’Administration, France’s elite school for civil servants. He rose through the Finance Ministry and was director of the French Treasury from 1993 to 1995.

Noyer was vice president of the ECB from 1998 to 2002 under Wim Duisenberg before replacing Jean-Claude Trichet at the Bank of France in 2003. Trichet is currently the ECB President.

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European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the group of euro-area finance ministers, and European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia will travel to China before year end to discuss the yuan’s exchange rate, Juncker said.

“I will go with Mr. Trichet and Mr. Almunia to China before the end of the year,” Juncker told a press conference today in Luxembourg, where he serves as premier and Treasury minister. “This is an initiative I started two years ago.”

Trichet, Almunia and Juncker went to Beijing in November 2007 to push Chinese leaders for a faster “pace of appreciation” of the yuan, a plea that was rebuffed at the time by Premier Wen Jiabao.

China halted the yuan’s gains against the dollar in July 2008 after allowing it to appreciate 21 percent over the previous three years. That left the euro 10.6 percent higher versus the yuan over the previous 12 months as the European currency appreciated against the dollar.

The euro has depreciated 5.4 percent against the yuan since November 2007. That decline is smaller than those of the dollar and the British pound, which fell 8.4 percent and 28 percent versus the yuan, respectively, during the period.

European and U.S. policy makers have started pressing China and other emerging nations to shoulder more of the burden as exchange rates adjust to a rebalancing of the global economy.

‘Lack of Flexibility’

The U.S. Treasury Department yesterday criticized China for the “lack of flexibility” in the yuan and a buildup of foreign-exchange reserves, which “risk unwinding some of the progress made in reducing imbalances.”

Trichet said on Oct. 5 that some emerging economies must allow their currencies to strengthen against the euro and the dollar and said yesterday that excess foreign-exchange volatility is “an enemy” of global economic stability.

While two years ago the trio’s pleas were rebuffed by Chinese officials who said the yuan would enjoy greater flexibility only over time, this time their efforts may be more fruitful. China’s yuan forwards had the biggest weekly gain in more than six months on speculation the central bank will allow appreciation as exports and inflation pick up.

China’s foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s largest, surged to a record $2.27 trillion at the end of September.

Trichet also has had to grapple with an 18 percent surge of the euro against the dollar since March, which threatens to damp euro-area exports and curb the nascent recovery in the economy of the 16 nations using the euro. European exports fell 5.8 percent in August, the most in seven months, data showed today.

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