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December 1, 2011

US envoy criticizes China’s controls on economy

Filed under: investors, term — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 3:12 pm

A U.S. trade envoy has accused China’s government of increasing its role in the economy in violation of its free-trade pledges and he appealed to Beijing to reconsider its embrace of “state capitalism.”

The comments reflect a harder U.S. tone toward Beijing amid disputes over market access for banking and other services and complaints China is supporting its producers of solar power and other technology despite promising to allow free competition.

In a speech this week, the U.S. ambassador to the World Trade Organization cited a “troubling trend” of increased Chinese government intervention in the economy over the past five years despite its WTO commitments to open its markets.

The ambassador, Michael Punke, made the comments Wednesday in Geneva, according to a transcript on the website of the U.S. Trade Representative’s office. He was speaking at a WTO meeting for the tenth and final annual review of China’s compliance with its WTO obligations since it joined the body in 2001.

“China seems to be embracing state capitalism more strongly each year, rather than continuing to move toward the economic reform goals that originally drove its pursuit of WTO membership,” he said. “This is a troubling development, and the United States urges the Chinese government to reconsider the path it is on.”

During a trip through Asia last month, President Barack Obama called on Beijing to show more maturity in its economic relations with other nations.

“Increasingly, trade frictions with China can be traced to China’s pursuit of industrial policies that rely on trade-distorting government actions to promote or protect China’s state-owned enterprises and domestic industries,” Punke said.

China’s trade and economy have grown rapidly since 2001, propelling it past Japan as the world’s second-largest economy behind the United States and financing a military buildup that has alarmed its neighbors.

On Wednesday, China’s Defense Ministry criticized Washington’s strengthened military pact with Australia as a throwback to “Cold War thinking.”

Beijing has alarmed foreign companies by unveiling initiatives to build up state-owned corporate champions in an array of fields from telecommunications to wind energy.

Business groups complain Beijing appears to be trying to squeeze foreign companies out of its clean energy and other promising industries. They have questioned whether the communist government wants to live up to pledges to allow foreign companies to compete on an equal footing with Chinese rivals.

Punke said that in its first five years of WTO membership, Beijing took “impressive steps” to reduce tariffs, eliminate trade barriers and improve protection for intellectual property rights.

But he noted complaints that Beijing tries to intimidate foreign companies, threatening to retaliate if they speak up about problematic policies or cooperate with their governments in challenging them.

Punke complained that Beijing appears to resort to trade actions in response to legitimate steps by the United States and other trading partners under their trade laws.

Last month, China launched a probe of U.S. government support for its solar, wind and other renewable energy industries after American authorities agreed to investigate a complaint by a group of companies that Beijing improperly subsidizes exports of solar panels and hurts foreign competitors.

“This type of conduct is at odds with fundamental principles of the WTO’s rules-based system,” Punke said.

Source

November 23, 2011

Yemeni leader in Saudi to sign power transfer deal

Filed under: economics, news — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 12:32 pm

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh was in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to sign a U.S.-backed power transfer deal mediated by Gulf Arab states to resolve the impoverished country’s crisis, Yemen’s state television reported.

Saleh has repeatedly promised to sign the Gulf-brokered agreement, only to change his mind every time. Under the deal, Saleh would step down and transfer power to the vice president in exchange for immunity from prosecution.

The TV said Saleh arrived in the Saudi capital Riyadh on Wednesday morning but did not say when the deal would be signed. It said that along with Gulf Arab representatives who sponsored the agreement, European and American envoys would also attend the signing.

Saleh has clung to power despite an 8-month-old uprising, mass protests calling for his ouster and a June assassination attempt that left him badly wounded and forced him to travel to Saudi Arabia for more than three months of hospital treatment.

But things appeared to be shifting on Tuesday, when the U.N. secretary-general’s envoy to Yemen, Jamal bin Omar, said all parties had agreed on a plan that would have Saleh step down.

“All parties agreed today on the Gulf initiative and the implementation of its mechanism,” bin Omar said after meetings with Yemen’s vice president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, in Sanaa.

Security in Yemen has unraveled amid the uprising against Saleh’s 30-year reign. The situation is particularly bad in the south, where al-Qaida militants _ from what is perhaps the world’s most active branch of the terror network _ have taken control of entire towns, using the turmoil to strengthen their position.

The unarmed protesters have held their ground with remarkable resilience, flocking to the streets of Sanaa and other Yemeni cities and towns to demand reforms from the autocratic government and braving a violent crackdown by government forces that has killed hundreds.

But their uprising, inspired by other Arab revolts in the region that saw longtime rulers of Egypt and Tunisa go, has at times been hijacked by Yemen’s two traditional powers _ the tribes and the military _ further deepening the country’s turmoil.

Breakaway military units and tribal fighters have been battling in Sanaa with troops loyal to Saleh, in fighting that has escalated in recent months.

An impoverished nation of some 25 million people, Yemen is of strategic value to the United States and its Gulf Arab allies, particularly Saudi Arabia. It sits close to the major Gulf oilfields and overlooks key shipping lanes in the Red and Arabian seas.

Source

November 21, 2011

Leftist govts shown the exit amid European crisis

Filed under: economics, investors — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 8:48 pm

Throw a dart at a map of Europe now and it takes expert aim to hit a country run by a left-of-center government, especially after Spain’s Socialists were emphatically drubbed out of power over the weekend.

Although the shift to the right began years ago in such heavyweights as France and Germany, it is now all but complete three years into the continent’s grinding debt and economic crisis. Why? When times get tough _ when “the cows get thin” as the Spanish say _ political experts say edgy voters seek comfort with conservatives.

“The center-right is the natural preference in times of crisis,” said Piotr Kaczynski of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels. “If you look at societies and how they make their preferences, they all tend to vote more conservative in times of crisis and more center-left in times of economic progress.”

Granted, on the European Union map there are scattered spots of leftist liberalism. A new Social Democratic government runs Denmark, there is a center left government in Norway and there is a broad Social Democratic-led coalition in Austria. And the Socialists might beat conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy in France’s presidential election next year.

But Kaczynski said there is no doubt the European left faces an uphill battle in re-establishing itself with an appealing message and the means to enact it, despite widespread disillusionment with go-go capitalism as seen in the Occupy Wall Street protests and Europe’s widespread anti-austerity marches.

In Spain, voters enduring a 21.5 jobless rate ejected the Socialists and install the center-right Popular Party by a crushing margin in Sunday’s election.

Voters dumped the Socialists in Portugal earlier this year and the Labour Party in Britain last year, in both cases shifting to conservative parties. A technocrat government has taken over in the last month from Greece’s Socialist prime minister.

Kaczynski said is not an ironclad rule that a government will be dumped from power during an economic crisis. He cited the cases of troubled governments being re-elected in Latvia, Estonia _ a member of the eurozone _ and Poland, and said as long as the public concludes the government is capable and taking the right approach to a financial crisis, it might get a second chance.

That was not the case for Spain’s Socialists, due to the poor record of outgoing Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in fighting unemployment and in resurrecting an economy that overcome nearly two years of recession in 2010 only to stall again last quarter.

His punishment: the conservative Popular Party won 186 seats in the 350-seat lower chamber of Parliament, up from 154, while the Socialists plummeted from 169 seats to 110, their worst performance ever.

“Clearly, Spain is the biggest loss for the European Socialists. That is absolutely the case,” Kaczynski said.

In his first public comments, Zapatero _ who did not seek a third term _ said Monday that the austerity measures he took _ and which caused supporters to flee in a stampede _ “put the national interests ahead of party interests.”

Spanish stock and bond markets shrugged off the Popular Party win because it was so widely expected and because leader Mariano Rajoy has yet to spell out how he will attack Spain’s unemployment debacle, deficit and growth woes.

However, some experts say Europe is not going right ideologically but rather seeking something _ anything _ new to get out of its quagmire.

“I wouldn’t say Europe is turning to the right. It’s basically the crisis is crushing the incumbents,” said Eurasia Group’s analyst for Europe, Antonio Barroso. “People are disappointed in the bad economic data, high unemployment and basically they are voting for the other alternative.”

He noted that in Italy, conservative premier Silvio Berlusconi was forced to resign this month as the eurozone crisis centered on his debt-laden country _ but that was to a technocratic administration, not to leftist politicians.

Barroso also mentioned the 2012 French presidential race and Sarkozy’s record low approval rating. The feisty French conservative is trailing the Socialist Francois Hollande badly in the polls, although he has recovered a bit in recent weeks.

Socialists are strong in local and regional politics in France: They head 24 of France’s 26 regional governments and run major cities including Paris, Lyon, and Lille. Most recently, in September, the Socialists wrested control of the Senate, Parliament’s upper house, for the first time in more than a half-century _ seen by many as a rebuff to Sarkozy.

In Germany, conservative Angela Merkel beat the center-left’s Gerhard Schroeder in 2005 after he pushed through labor market reforms and welfare state cuts. The moves angered his leftist supporters but they are credited with bolstering Germany’s strength in the current financial crisis.

However, Stephen Lewis of Monument Securities in London agreed it is perhaps natural for people to turn to the right in times of extreme financial hardship. He noted it happened in the 1930s during the Depression.

“It is not surprising that we are seeing all these right-wing governments appear as a result of elections or imposed from Brussels,” Lewis said.

Source

November 15, 2011

Sales tax bill will level the playing field between Web, brick-and-mortar retailers

Filed under: economics, technology — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 9:40 am

Carol Behr thinks she knows why many students at Southern Illinois University Carbondale are buying their books online, and it’s not just the convenience.

It’s the sales tax savings, says Behr, a vice president of Kennedy Book Store, which owns Southern Illinois Book & Supply in Carbondale. The company also has a store in Lexington, Ky., and of the two, she says the Carbondale store has lost more business to competitors such as Amazon.com.

The difference? Kentucky doesn’t charge sales tax on textbooks, but Illinois does.

To Behr, the slipping Illinois sales figures highlight an unfair competitive situation. “A business is a business,” she says. “Why do I have to charge sales tax and they don’t, if we’re in the same business?”

Ten senators, including Illinois Democrat Richard Durbin and Missouri Republican Roy Blunt, introduced a bill Wednesday that would remove Amazon’s competitive advantage over bookstores such as the one in Carbondale. And, surprisingly, Amazon has endorsed the bill.

The proposed Marketplace Fairness Act would require retailers to collect taxes on remote sales, including those made online or through mail order. It would apply only to businesses with at least $500,000 of remote sales, and only in states that adopt a simplified sales tax structure.

Large sums of money are at stake. William Fox, a professor of economics at the University of Tennessee, estimates that state and local governments lose $11.4 billion a year in revenue from online retail sales, and a total of $23.6 billion from untaxed online, catalog and business-to-business sales.

In the past, Amazon has fought hard to avoid collecting its share of that money. In Illinois, North Carolina and Rhode Island, it canceled relationships with local affiliates to get around so-called “Amazon tax” laws. In Texas, it threatened to close a warehouse rather than pay $269 million in sales taxes.

Now, though, Amazon says it ’strongly supports enactment” of the Marketplace Fairness Act. Not all companies agree: eBay, for example, says the bill “fails to protect small business retailers using the Internet.”

Past congressional efforts to address the sales tax issue

November 13, 2011

Berlusconi now faces legal and financial threats

Filed under: economics, small business — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 6:44 pm

ROME—His legacy tarnished and his hopes of clinging to power dashed, Silvio Berlusconi faces daunting legal and financial challenges once he vacates the premier’s office and faces the prospect of life outside the international spotlight.

He has vowed he won’t run again for office, though few expect he’ll abandon Italian politics for good. Berlusconi himself has already said he might help out a campaign here or there because, well, “they’ve always turned out well for me.”

But with Berlusconi’s resignation as premier Saturday following months of market turmoil, a political era in Italy closes and the 75-year-old Berlusconi is just a billionaire businessman once again.

“What we are viewing now is not the end of a government, but the end of a system, of a political system,” said Massimo Franco, a political analyst for leading daily Corriere Della Sera.

Indeed, Berlusconi dominated Italian politics for the last 17 years, a polarizing figure who served three terms as premier. He held off political opponents and jousted with magistrates pursuing him on corruption and sexual misconduct charges, but was felled by massive international and market pressure.

The media mogul had thrived rubbing shoulders with the powerful, whether vacationing with Russia’s Vladimir Putin or getting a taste of Texas ranch life when hosted by then President George W. Bush in a meeting of Iraq war allies.

But seen as an impediment to economic reform, his exit came quickly as Italy was swept up by Europe’s debt crisis.

Whether he goes back to running his media empire or even returning to the vacant post as president of his beloved AC Milan soccer team, he faces an unpleasant agenda. Judging from how his media voices are reacting, it won’t be a completely quiet exit.

“Stop a Europe of technocrats,” clamoured a headline in the family newspaper Il Giornale of Italy’s presumed new government headed by economist Mario Monti. “This government is a coup.”

Berlusconi’s resignation will mean he can no longer claim official government business as a reason for missing hearings in his three trials, a tactic that has been used to delay proceedings. His attempt at fashioning a law that would have given him immunity was overturned by the constitutional Court.

But charges in two Milan trials related to his business dealings will run out due to the statute of limitations early next year — leaving little peril that the billionaire would face any penalty even if courts can reach a conviction in the first trial. The Italian system allows for two levels of appeal.

Berlusconi is expected to testify before Christmas in his trial on charges of paying British lawyer David Mills to lie for him on the stand in another case. A verdict is expected in late January, but with the statute of limitations set to expire in March, it is impossible that two levels of appeal could be completed to make any verdict final bad credit payday advance.

Berlusconi has denied the charge, and Mills saw his conviction overturned on appeal.

In the other trial concerning his Mediaset media empire, Berlusconi is charged with tax fraud in the purchase of TV rights. Berlusconi denies the charges, which also expire in the spring.

In Berlusconi’s most sensational trial, the 75-year-old is accused of paying for sex with a Moroccan teen — known by her nickname Ruby Rubacuore, “Ruby the Heartstealer” — and using his influence to cover it up. No fewer than 22 court dates have been scheduled through May.

A conviction would mean Berlusconi would be permanently barred from public office — but he has already pledged not to run again and his hopes of one day becoming Italian president were dashed by the sex scandal.

That leaves the billionaire back where he started: running his considerable empire. The economic crisis has made that more challenging.

Shares in Mediaset have lost half of their value since May, as the debt crisis lapped ever more perilously at Italian businesses, and dropped by as much as 10 per cent in trading sessions this week as Berlusconi’s political future was decided by the markets.

Mediaset — which is controlled by the family holding company Fininvest and includes private TV stations as well as newspapers and other publications — dropped from €4.242 a share in May to €2.142 on Friday.

“It could be that Berlusconi is very scared by the financial crisis. If you think that Fininvest is 95 per cent invested in Italy,” said Carlo Guarnieri, a political scientist as the University of Bologna.

Even more dangerous was his loss of a civil suit to rival media group over corruption in the acquisition of the Mondadori publishing empire. A court has ordered him to €560 million ($800 million) for corrupting a judge.

Alarmed by the amount, Berlusconi went as far as quietly introducing a measure into Italy’s austerity budget this summer that would have allowed the company to delay payment until the final appeal, but withdrew it after political opponents raised an outcry.

He can still count on friends in high places to look after his interests: his 41-year-old political heir, Angelo Alfano, now heads his People of Liberties party and he remains its founder.

But Franco, the Corriere della Sera analyst, said Berlusconi’s future in the near-term is probably not on Italy’s centre political stage.

“I think Berlusconi can just survive, maybe with a personal party, but I don’t think he is due to rule and lead Italy in the foreseeable future any more,” he said.

Source

November 2, 2011

Federal Reserve wraps up policy meeting

Filed under: Canada, online — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 10:00 am

The Federal Reserve, after employing a dwindling set of policy options at its last two meetings, may hit the pause button in hopes that the faint signs of the economy’s rebound will grow stronger.

By taking a wait-and-see approach, the Fed would be buying time to assess whether its actions in August and September are having the desired effect of lowering long-term interest rates enough to jump-start growth.

The Fed’s decision will be announced around mid-day Wednesday following two days of closed-door discussions.

The central bank will also release an updated economic forecast and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a news conference to discuss the Fed’s new forecast.

It will be Bernanke’s third news conference after a Fed meeting and will continue a practice he began last April in an effort to give the public a better understanding of the Fed’s decision-making.

Most economists believe the Fed will leave policy unchanged, although it will be a close call.

“It is about 50-50 on whether they will do anything. There is evidence the economy is continuing to grow, but we still have a fundamentally weak economy,” said Brian Bethune, economics professor at Amherst College.

Financial markets in the United States and around the world were jolted Tuesday after Greece’s prime minister made the surprise decision to call a referendum on the country’s latest rescue package. The move sparked fears that the entire debt deal could unravel, that Greece could default on its debt and that the crisis could ripple through the global financial system.

Economists said Europe was sure to be a major discussion topic during the Fed meeting.

“They will talk about Europe, but I don’t expect any action,” said David Jones, head of DMJ Advisors, a Denver-based consulting group. “The Fed will not respond to the problems in Europe until it is clear they are causing a significant weakening in economic activity in the United States.”

David Wyss, former chief economist at Standard & Poor’s, said one reason for the Fed’s reluctance to do more is that they don’t have many policy options left.

“They know they are running out of tools so they don’t want to employ another one unless they have to,” he said.

The economy nearly stalled out during the first six months of the year, with growth slowing to an anemic 0.9 percent, the slowest pace since the recession ended in June 2009 low fee pay day loans.

However, the government reported last week that growth rebounded modestly in the summer with the economy expanding at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the July-September period, the best quarterly performance in a year.

While the economy would have to nearly double from the 2.5 percent rate to make a significant dent in high unemployment, the faster growth at least eases fears of a new recession.

At its Aug. 9 meeting, the central bank approved changing its guidance on future policy to say it hoped to keep a key interest rate, which has been near zero since December 2008, at a record low through at least mid-2013, as long as inflation does not become a threat.

The belief was that such an assurance would give investors more confidence that rates would not begin rising any time soon and help to push long-term rates down farther.

At the next meeting on Sept. 20-21, the Fed voted to shift $400 billion of its holdings from short-term to long-term Treasury securities in another effort to push already low long-term rates down further. These rates are critical for consumers borrowing to buy homes and cars and for businesses borrowing to make investments to expand their operations.

Both the August and September moves were approved on 7-3 votes with three regional bank presidents _ Richard Fisher of Dallas, Charles Plosser of Philadelphia and Narayana Kocherlakota of Minneapolis _ voting no because of concerns the actions raise the threat of future inflation.

That was the largest number of dissents in nearly 20 years from an action by the Federal Open Market Committee, the panel of Fed governors and central bank presidents who meet eight times a year to set interest-rate policies.

On the other side are at least four Fed officials, Vice Chair Janet Yellen, Governor Daniell Tarullo, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Fed President William Dudley who have expressed concerns that the economy is still at risk and may need more support.

If the Fed does move again, many believe it will not occur until either the December meeting or early next year. Some economists believe the likely next change would be a further tweaking of the Fed’s communication efforts.

Source

October 30, 2011

Looking to buy a condo? Get to the back of the line

Filed under: business, loans — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 4:32 am

For three years now, Efrem Rone has been keeping a close eye on an Adelaide St. E. parking lot, watching for a condo sales centre to rise from the asphalt.

“I know how things work,” says Rone, 45. “If you don’t get on the list (to get into the sales centre early), the best units are gone, prices start going up and you’re stuck with the leftovers.”

His agent was getting nowhere, despite registering early to view floor plans for the 22-storey Ivory on Adelaide project. So Rone was surprised last weekend to walk past an Ivory on Adelaide sales centre bustling with activity.

“On the door was taped an ad from a Chinese newspaper with a picture of what the project would look like. Deals were being done,” says Rone. “It looked like the sales centre was open for business, but only to people of a certain ethnicity.”

Toronto’s condo market is on fire. And much of the frenzy is being fuelled by investors, many of them Asians, who are being given preferential treatment — early access to the best and cheapest units.

“It may look like discrimination, but these people have actually earned the right to be first in line. Any business will go to their best customers first,” says realtor turned condo developer Brad Lamb.

Almost 68,000 new units are now in the planning stages or under construction across the GTA as investors, a lot of them immigrants with ties to Hong Kong and mainland China, the Middle East, India, Pakistan, Russia and Brazil, look to cash in on the biggest condo boom in the world.

A record 20,729 units have been sold in the GTA as of the end of September — smashing the pre-recession record for the same period in 2007 of 17,285. An estimated 45 to 60 per cent have been snapped up by investors, with estimates closer to 90 per cent in some newer downtown condo projects.

They are looking for solid investments in a shaky world — the keys to hard assets like real estate.

“We are a tranquil island in a sea of despair,” says one of Toronto’s leading condo development consultants Barry Lyon. “If it wasn’t for the multicultural community, we would have no condo market to speak of right now in Toronto.”

Even realtors who find themselves, and their clients, with no hope of being among the first buyers in all these new glass and steel towers springing up on Toronto’s skyline understand why this is happening.

Targeting agents with strong ties to big buyers in the multicultural community — one developer calls them his “rainmaker list” — means developers can sell 70 per cent of the units in a project faster, which keeps costs down. That’s what most banks demand before they will free up loans to start construction.

The practice has paid off: In 2005, it took an average of 13 months for condo builders to sell 70 per cent of their units, says George Carras, president of RealNet Canada, which monitors building activity across the GTA.

This year, they’re hitting the threshold in just four months, largely because of their “growing sophistication” in wooing brokers who can deliver multiple investors.

Carras likens the process to Initial Public Offerings of stocks. Those willing to spend the most and not afraid of risk potentially get the biggest payback.

But some agents complain that a handful of condo builders, such as Plaza Corp., are being so aggressive at racking up early sales, it’s becoming impossible for the average buyer, looking for a home or little investment property, to get in before prices are less affordable.

It also gets tougher to find the most desirable units, such as the cheapest one-bedroom corner units high enough to have a view.

Several realtors spoke to The Star about the focus on investment buyers, but none would be named for fear of being blacklisted from getting access to any units at all, which are now essential to their livelihood.

One Asian agent who has sold numerous Plaza Corp. units, said he had to pull strings to get clients a peek at their York Harbour Club project on the Railway Lands: “I’m not part of their stable of VIP agents.”

“York Harbour Club was a little bit unfair to the public,” concedes Plaza Corp. vice-president Scott McClellan. “The (pre-sales) took off on us a little bit and we probably didn’t have as much as we wanted to have for the general public.”

By the time the public could buy, just 30 per cent of units were available.

“This isn’t new. Everybody does it,” says McLellan of what he calls his “rainmaker list” — realtors who can deliver 15 or more buyers willing to buy from floor plans, rather than wait for built units.

McLellan says all of the early buyers of Ivory on Adelaide are Canadian citizens, buying units as long-term investments or as homes for their kids or relatives who might be migrating from overseas.

No one knows how much is offshore investment.

Lyon points out that investors have become essential landlords in a city where almost no one is building apartments. He also sees the units as “warehousing” for first-time buyers who can rent while saving up a down payment. Often investors are willing to sell without requiring the 20 per cent down payment a bank demands.

“These investors bear no relationship to the speculators of the 1980s,” Lyon says. “They’re very sophisticated” and recognize Toronto as a bargain compared with other major cities in the world.

A lot of developers point out they hold back units so less high-achieving realtors, and the public, don’t miss out altogether. Often they are at higher prices — parking spots alone can be almost $10,000 more expensive — but McLellan says there are no plans to raise unit prices on Ivory on Adelaide when the public gets their first crack this weekend.

Rone is fairly savvy — he has been involved in the condo market since 2006 — but is still shaking his head: “This just seems unfair.”

He finally got his email invitation to the “grand opening” of the Ivory on Adelaide sales centre Friday. Like everyone else who may walk through the doors, he has no clue that almost half — 43.5 per cent — of the 358 units have already been sold.

McLellan insists that no buyer is being left out. Even those who’ve dropped by the last few days have been asked to leave their names.

But Rone’s agent now knows she gained nothing by registering early and that the smallest and most affordable places will likely be gone.

“I’m not going to lie and tell you that I haven’t heard this (complaints about the early sales process) before,” McLellan says. “I have people who have called me upset. We figure it out for them.

“Have him give me a call.”

Source

October 23, 2011

Thai PM says floods may last for 6 more weeks

Filed under: investors, term — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 4:48 pm

Thailand’s prime minister says the country’s catastrophic floods may take up to six weeks to recede.

Yingluck Shinawatra also said in a weekly address to the nation Saturday that the crisis had displaced more than 110,000 people from their homes.

The government said the death toll had risen to 356.

Excessive monsoon rains have drowned a third of the Southeast Asian nation since late July, and over the last two weeks the government has struggled to prevent the inundation from pouring through Bangkok.

Districts just outside the capital’s northern boundaries have been submerged for days. Since Friday, rising waters have caused minor flooding in Bangkok’s outskirts.

Source

October 22, 2011

For investors, playing it ’safe’ can be risky

Filed under: money, news — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 1:28 am

Investors remain anxious to find safety even as the stock market moves back toward positive territory for the year.

They’re on pace to yank more than $20 billion out of stock funds this month, the fourth time in the last five months, scarred by the volatility over everything from the sluggish economy to Europe’s debt crisis to the threat of another global recession.

Despite the recent market uptick, there’s still plenty to worry about.

Fears remain that the Greek government may fail to pay its massive debts, which would wreak widespread financial havoc. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hasn’t backed off from his statement early this month that the economic recovery “is close to faltering.” And investors aren’t fully convinced that the selloff that pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 index down 14 percent in the third quarter has run its course.

All the added uncertainty fuels any temptation to abandon stocks, as many already have done.

But “playing it safe” comes at a cost. Over the long run, fleeing to cash or buying Treasurys may be even more dangerous in this era of low interest rates as well as low returns. It can do permanent damage to your money’s buying power and your retirement prospects.

That’s the message financial advisers have been hammering home to clients who want to abandon the stock market, fearing a repeat of the 2008 meltdown or who are simply fed up with all the plunges.

Disillusioned investors, too, risk chasing an illusion of safety. So-called safe havens aren’t all that safe anymore.

“This is what I say to clients: `There is no safety’,” says Femi Shote, an investment adviser with Asset Harvest Group in McLean, Va. “What I preach is resilience, not safety.”

Hints of improvement in the latest corporate results hold out hope for investors, while highlighting the risk of being on the sidelines. Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, says the stock market is “pretty cheap” after all the selling and could come back quickly.

“All this volatility doesn’t engender a lot of confidence,” LaVorgna says. “But some good news can quickly restore it. If it looks like the economy is still growing and there’s some resolution in Europe, we could have the tonic for a powerful rally.”

Whether that occurs soon or not, here’s a look at the numbers confirms the meager payoffs of playing it safe.

_ Cash: Although it can provide a sense of security, cash doesn’t hold its value well over time. The average yield on a money-market account is just 0.54 percent, according to Bankrate.com. Even the best-paying online savings accounts pay 1 percent or less. As recently as the summer of 2008, just before the financial crisis hit full-force, you could earn 5 percent on such accounts.

Certificates of deposit also pay poorly. The highest rates available are 1.15 percent on a one-year CD and 2.2 percent on a five-year CD.

_ U.S. Treasury notes: The safety of bonds is less rewarding than it used to be. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell to a record-low 1.71 percent last month and remains near 2 percent.

_ Gold: It is far too speculative to be used wisely as protection against a falling stock market. But gold has been embraced by investors worried about rising U.S. debt, the possibility of inflation and a spreading European debt crisis. More and more piled in as the price nearly tripled in four years, reaching a record $1,891.90 on Aug. 22.

Since then, it has tumbled all the way back near $1,600.

Aside from gold’s recent slide, a market-weary investor might reason that at least cash and other options offer less downside risk than stocks and the most protection for their accounts.

Investment experts, however, consider that thinking short-sighted quick cash. If you’re too conservative, they note, you can outlive your money.

Inflation historically averages about 3 percent, so putting money aside that earns less than 1 percent means its value is eroding over time. Keeping money in the stock market is the likeliest way to stay ahead of inflation, or at least keep pace.

Even in a period that included two sharp declines in the market, the S&P 500 index had an average annual return of 7 percent for the 15 years from mid-1996 through June 30. That’s hard to match elsewhere.

Investors who ditch stocks are removing future growth from their portfolios and need to compensate elsewhere.

“When you sell, you need to simultaneously increase the amount you’re contributing to that account,” says Stuart Ritter, a certified financial planner for T. Rowe Price in Baltimore. “Or if you’re in retirement, you need to withdraw less. Otherwise you have no chance to keep up with inflation.”

Then there’s what economists call the opportunity cost — what you miss out in the long haul by leaving.

Over the longer term, the case for staying in stocks is even more compelling. History says the market is highly unlikely to decline over any 10-year period, recent times notwithstanding. On a rolling basis, the S&P 500 has produced losses in only four out of 76 different 10-year periods since 1926, according to a T. Rowe Price analysis.

Those who want to keep their cash on the sidelines until the market calms down, even for a few days, do so at risk of missing a comeback. An investment that excluded the best 10 days of the S&P 500 in the past decade would have posted an annual loss of 1.5 percent rather than a gain of 5.3 percent.

Investors who sat out even part of the 2009-11 bull market learned the hard way.

When panicked clients call Joe Adkins of Financial Advisors International with a request to sell after seeing the Dow drop hundreds of points, the Orlando, Fla., money manager offers a ready reminder. Had they sold stocks in March 2009 when the market bottomed and bought back in in December 2009, he tells them, they would have missed a 4,000-point gain in the Dow — nearly two-thirds of the two-year bull-market rally.

“You shouldn’t manage your money based on the headlines,” his advice goes. “Just weather the storm, because if you go to cash you risk running out of money.”

Besides telling clients to stick with the market, many advisers are steering them toward large, stable, blue chip stocks with a history of paying annual dividends of 3 percent or more.

Others recommend sinking a small percentage of holdings into alternative investments _ a catch-all term for such instruments as hedge funds and commodities. Alternative investments can be used as a tool to reduce overall risk through diversification. But the complexity, cost and lack of liquidity typically don’t make those the safest of investments, either.

Ultimately, those who can’t tolerate short-term risk for the likelihood of long-term gains may find a comfort level with simply a smaller percentage of their money in stocks.

They just have to realize that caution will probably cost them in the end, according to Pat Dorsey, director of research and strategy for the Sanibel Captiva Trust Co. in Chicago.

“Certainly if you are just a very nervous person, prone to getting out of the market every time the Dow drops 2 or 3 percent, having higher cash or bond allocation may make sense,” Dorsey says. “But you’ve got to dial down your (lifestyle) expectations for the future if you do that.”

Source

October 20, 2011

Fiat focuses on US, Brazil amid European woes

Filed under: legal, term — Tags: , , , — ManInBlack @ 10:20 am

Fiat and Chrysler are focusing on cash-generating businesses in the United States and Brazil to help weather growing uncertainty in the European auto market, CEO Sergio Marchionne said Wednesday.

Fiat, which took over Chrysler nearly 2 1/2 years ago, saw its credit rating downgraded this week over financial risks in its alliance with the U.S. carmaker, which has been recovering from bankruptcy. Crucially, it is under severe pressure in its home market of Italy, where unions are resisting more flexible work conditions and demand is fading.

Adding to uncertainty, the Italian government appears unable to swiftly implement the austerity and growth measures aimed at preventing the country _ Fiat’s most important market _ from being swept into a spiraling debt market crisis.

“There is no doubt that a lot of elements are coming to play here, one of which may be an Italian factor. … I don’t know any more,” Marchionne said. “The stock market is up 4, 5 percent one day, then down 3. It is totally moving on rumors. There is no factual basis. I haven’t moved a forecast. I have moved nothing.”

Marchionne has maintained 2011 forecasts of euro58 billion ($79 billion) in revenues with euro2.1 billion ($2.9 billion) in trading profit for the combined automakers.

But he said there was little he can do to calm the markets.

“It is embedding a perception of risk which is totally outside of my control for me to try to cover it. We are almost helpless on this. There is nothing I can tell you, or tell the market, that will make this go away.”

The continuing economic uncertainty is hurting auto sales, particularly in Fiat’s main Italian market. Fiat registered a 7.8 percent drop in sales last month compared with a year earlier while its European market share shrank to 6.5 percent in September from 7.2 percent a year earlier.

“It impacts consumer attitudes, and that is probably the most negative thing about all of this. It really negatively impacts moods,” he said.

To maintain profitability, Marchionne said he is focusing on the cash-making parts of the business _ the U.S. and Brazilian markets _ while trying to build sales in the increasingly competitive European market, mainly outside of Italy where sales are at 30-year lows.

“They are still today the biggest profit contributors to Fiat. They need to be nurtured,” Marchionne said of the U.S. and Brazil business card. “That’s why I spend so much time there.”

Ironically, it is Fiat’s alliance with Chrysler that triggered downgrades by ratings agencies. Fitch was the last to weigh in on Tuesday, lowering the credit rating from to BB from BB+. It cited Fiat’s “intrinsic weakness,” its heavy reliance on the Italian and Brazilian markets, and exposure to increased financial risk due to the alliance with Chrysler.

Marchionne said Fiat is in a good cash position to continue with its investments in Italy and abroad for new production. Fiat expects to have euro18 billion in liquidity at the end of this year, according to its forecasts.

“We have enough liquidity now to deal with our requirements for quite a while,” Marchionne said.

But he criticized unions in Italy that continue to challenge the new contracts with more flexible work hours that Fiat has agreed at three plants. The FIOM metalworkers union has announced a one-day strike Friday at all Fiat plants.

“I think the strike, personally, is a very bad idea. It is not the manner in which one would encourage investment in this country,” Marchionne said, adding that he believes most Fiat workers support the new contracts, which have secured new investments at two plants near Fiat’s Turin headquarters and one near Naples.

Marchionne attended Wednesday the European launch of the Lancia Voyager minivan and Thema luxury sedan, both based on Chrysler models and concrete examples of the tighter integration of the two companies. In all of Europe except Britain, Chrysler models will carry the Lancia badge.

The Thema luxury sedan is Lancia’s re-entry into the premium market, after a two-year absence, at an affordable price of euro41,400. It is based on the Chrysler 300, but has been restyled and adapted for European markets with a soft leather interior, firmer suspension and redesigned front-end.

Lancia brand chief Saad Chehab said the car is the same size as the Audi A-8, but sells at a 15 percent discount over the smaller Audi A-6.

Both the Thema and Voyager will be manufactured in Canada, and aim at the higher end of Fiat’s market, with neither expected to achieve huge volumes. Chehab said they expect to sell 10,000 Themas and 11,000 Voyagers a year.

Source

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