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Service industries in the U.S. grew in March, capping the strongest quarter in a year and indicating the world

It took David Jeffrey more than a year to get back on his feet after losing his job at Sallie Mae. As of February, he is witness to the factory rebound that has boosted confidence among American men.

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will need to claw back about 5 billion pounds ($8 billion) a year, largely from the wealthy, to fund giveaways he

News Corp. executive James Murdoch acknowledged Wednesday that he could have done more to investigate the phone hacking scandal that has rocked Britain and threatened his place as the likely heir to his father’s global media empire.

Murdoch’s admission came in a detailed, seven-page letter written to British parliamentarians investigating the scandal. In it, he repeated his insistence that he knew nothing about the criminality which had taken place at the now-defunct News of the World tabloid newspaper, saying that the extent of the wrongdoing had been hidden from him by members of his staff.

“It would have been better if I had asked more questions,” Murdoch said. “However the truth is that incomplete answers and what now appear to be false assurances were given to the questions that I asked.”

Murdoch has already appeared twice before lawmakers, who grilled him in detail about what he knew about the phone hacking scandal and alleged attempts to bury evidence of any illegal activity.

Murdoch was the one who signed off on a massive settlement to one of the first known victims of the practice, a deal which the company’s former in-house lawyer has acknowledged was aimed at keeping a lid on the scandal.

But the cover-up failed after the Guardian and The New York Times revealed that phone hacking was endemic at paper, an expose which has led to dozens of arrests and resignations. Murdoch’s father, Rupert, was forced to close the News of the World following an advertiser boycott. Lawmakers are now sifting through the scandal’s fallout in an effort to find out who was responsible.

In a separate development, police said that a 51-year-old man has been arrested Wednesday on suspicion of intimidating a witness.

Scotland Yard said the man taken into custody Wednesday had been previously arrested on April 5, 2011. Police did not identify the man, but The Associated Press had identified a man arrested that day as former News of the World reporter Neville Thurlbeck, who was 50 at the time.

Thurlbeck did not immediately return a text message seeking details about the arrest. His law firm had no immediate comment.

Wednesday’s developments follow the arrests Tuesday of six other suspects, including former News International executive Rebekah Brooks.

News International, the British newspaper arm of News Corp., has made cash settlements to 58 victims, including celebrities, politicians and the families of crime victims.

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Some of the world’s largest drugmakers will face an uphill battle next week in their bid to revive a class of experimental arthritis drugs that have been sidelined by safety concerns for nearly two years.

The Food and Drug Administration says there is a clear association between the nerve-blocking medications and incidents of joint failure that led the agency to halt studies of the drugs in 2010.

However, the agency also notes that those side effects were less common when the drugs were used at lower doses, potentially leaving the door open for future use. The agency released its safety analysis ahead of a public meeting.

On Monday Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson and Regeneron will make their case to continue studies of the drugs, with precautions to protect patients.

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The number has been repeated so often by presidential prognosticators that it’s an article of faith: No president has been re-elected since World War II with an unemployment rate higher than 7.2 percent.

But the stock market turns out to be a pretty good predictor, too.

The Dow Jones industrial average has soared 62 percent since President Barack Obama took the oath of office during some of the darkest days of the Great Recession. The Dow was just below 8,000 then and stands near 13,000 today.

If a recent study of stock markets and presidential elections is any guide, Obama can start preparing his second inaugural address.

“There’s something to this,” says Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors, the $370 billion investment firm.

There are plenty of other signs often consulted for their political forecasting power, like whether a team from the National Football Conference or the American Football Conference wins the Super Bowl.

This one makes a little more sense: When the economy picks up and unemployment falls, confident investors put money into riskier investments and stocks rise. Voters are likely to reward the sitting president with another four years.

“The stock market reflects trends in the economy,” Orlando says. And as any political operative can attest, in a presidential campaign, it’s the economy _ you know the rest.

The study was backed by the Socionomics Institute, a think tank studying how a shared mood among a group sways its members’ actions. Their researchers dug up data on economic output, prices, unemployment and stock-market performance and matched them to presidential elections.

They went all the way back to the first re-election in 1792, when George Washington beat John Adams and won a second term as the president.

The researchers found a solid connection between the stock market’s direction in the three years leading up to Election Day and the election results. Gains of 20 percent or more for the Dow nearly assured victories for sitting presidents. Drops of 10 percent or worse got them tossed out.

Voters returned Calvin Coolidge to the White House in 1924, just as the Roaring ’20s started roaring. They booted Herbert Hoover in 1932 while the stock market suffered through a three-year plunge.

The authors of the Socionomics Institute study say everything can be traced back to the prevailing optimism or pessimism. Their organization studies “the social mood.” But how do you read the mood of a whole country?

The authors say that the stock market is the best available gauge of how the country is feeling, “because investors can act swiftly to express their optimism or pessimism.” Bad day? Time to sell. Things looking up? Time to buy.

“An increasingly positive social mood produces a rising stock market as well as votes for the incumbent, and an increasingly negative social mood produces a falling stock market as well as votes against the incumbent,” they write.

To the authors, it’s the mood that determines the election, not the stock market. The stock market is just a reliable gauge of the national temper, an incredibly accurate mood ring.

In recent successful re-election campaigns, the connection appears clear. Ronald Reagan won re-election in 1984 following the Dow’s 41 percent surge and despite an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent. Bill Clinton was awarded a second term after the Dow gained 63 percent in the three years leading up to Election Day.

But there are misfires. James Madison, for instance, won re-election in 1812 despite a 34 percent drop in the market over three years. George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton even though the Dow rose 51 percent over his term in office.

Doug Wead, a presidential historian who served in the elder Bush’s administration, says the stock market theory sounds suspect.

“The stock market isn’t even a good indicator of the economy,” he says. “You can have the stock market going up while the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.”

There’s also the danger of oversimplifying _ relying on one number, in this case the Dow’s performance, while ignoring everything from scandals and wars to third-party candidates.

In William Howard Taft’s last three years in office, the Dow lost 12 percent, and Taft lost the 1912 election to Woodrow Wilson. But if Theodore Roosevelt hadn’t split from the Republicans and run under the Progressive Party banner against Taft that year, Taft might have returned to office.

It was a similar story with the first President Bush in 1992. The independent candidate Ross Perot siphoned off votes from both candidates, but historians generally believe more came from Bush’s Republican camp. Clinton won with just 43 percent of the popular vote.

The economy also slipped into a recession during Bush’s second year in office, and as he campaigned for re-election, the unemployment rate hovered well above the dreaded 7.2 percent mark.

Orlando, of Federated Investors, says a change in any single statistic won’t guarantee a president gets re-elected. Analysts should consult a range of figures. One that looks less reassuring for Obama is his approval rating, he says.

No president has been re-elected with a Gallup approval rating below 48 percent approaching Election Day. Obama’s numbers are improving, and the election is more than eight months away, but for now he’s teetering on the edge _ 48 percent.

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BlackRock Inc., the world

Solutia’s prowess in developing chemicals found in everything from car tires to office windows throughout the globe drew the interest of Eastman Chemical Co. last summer. Now it’s buying the Town and Country-based company in a deal worth $4.7 billion.

Eastman, a chemical manufacturer based in Kingsport, Tenn., is acquiring Solutia for $3.4 billion in cash and stock, and assuming $1.3 billion in debt. The deal is set to close in mid-2012, pending shareholder approval.

Solutia makes specialty films and chemicals for the automotive and architectural industries, and employs 3,400 people worldwide, including 450 locally.

With $2.1 billion in revenue last year, Solutia is one of the largest public companies based in the St. Louis region.

Solutia has two local facilities - the Town and Country headquarters, with 300 employees, and a Sauget manufacturing plant where 150 people work.

A Solutia spokeswoman said there was no information yet on the fate of local workers, though headquarters jobs are often a cost-cutting target in mergers. On Friday, Eastman said the headquarters of the combined companies will be in Kingsport.

Menawhile, the Sauget plant - which makes chemicals for tire manufacturing - runs 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

Sauget Mayor Rich Sauget said he spoke with Solutia employees as recently as last week who were unaware that a sale was in the works.

“They mean a lot to us,” Sauget said of Solutia’s local workforce. “We hope, whoever comes in, that they see an opportunity with Solutia and their properties here.”

Despite the uncertainty, Eastman won’t be leaving the region, Solutia’s chairman, president and CEO Jeffry Quinn predicted.

“I certainly would expect the combined company to have a significant presence in St. Louis for some time,” Quinn said in an interview with the Post-Dispatch. Quinn, who joined Solutia in 2003, will leave the company once the sale finalizes.

In the sale announcement, the companies did not disclose how much Quinn stands to gain when the deal closes. However, Solutia’s most recent proxy statement stated last year that Quinn’s compensation, including cash severance and stock options, would have totalled $21.6 million based on the company’s stock price at the end of 2010.

Under the deal, Solutia shareholders will receive $22 in cash and 0.12 shares of Eastman stock for each share of Solutia that they own. Based on Solutia’s closing price Thursday, Eastman offered a 42 percent premium for Solutia’s stock.

Eastman, which had $7.2 billion in revenue last year, plans to fund the cash portion of the buyout with available cash and debt.

After the early morning announcement, Eastman’s stock soared. Based on Friday’s closing prices, Solutia shareholders will receive cash and stock valued at $28.05 for each Solutia share.

Meanwhile, Solutia’s stock jumped more than 41 percent after the sale was announced, closing Friday at $27.52 a share.

Eastman expects about $100 million in annual cost savings by the end of 2013, as the acquisition is expected to help lower costs and help the company purchase raw materials at lower prices payday loans. The company said the deal will immediately boost earnings.

Global push

The original Monsanto Co. spun off Solutia in 1997 in an effort to focus on drugs and agriculture. Solutia, burdened with heavy debt loads and retirees’ benefits dating before the spin-off, floundered as raw material prices rose and environmental legal costs increased.

In 2003, Solutia filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It didn’t emerge out of bankruptcy until 2008.

During the years in bankruptcy, Solutia grew its international reach while divesting underperforming or non-core brands and businesses such as nylon, acrylic fibers and feed ingredients.

In 2003, only 30 percent of Solutia’s revenue came from international sales. Today, that has jumped to 75 percent.

“We’ve really transformed the company into one of the preeminent specialty chemical companies in the world,” Quinn said. “Many of the products we make are expensive to ship, so we built around the world to serve our customers.”

Growth in the company’s technical specialties division, for example, paralleled the development of infrastructure in places such as China. With the new roads, demand for radial tires - which use a chemical made by Solutia - is on the rise.

That global reach drove the Tennessee company’s interests in Solutia, Eastman’s chairman and CEO Jim Rogers said in a conference call with analysts Friday.

“With the addition of Solutia, Eastman will be adding manufacturing capacity in Asia over the next couple of years to meet growth,” Rogers said.

Eastman, which has 10,000 employees globally, was itself a product of a spin-off. The company was spun-off from camera and film maker Kodak in 1994.

In the conference call, Rogers said Eastman began exploring acquisition opportunities last summer.

“Solutia was number one then, and it has stayed number one through this whole process,” he said.

Talks with Solutia’s board began in the fall and intensified in the past 30 days, Quinn said.

The deal came on the same day Solutia announced fourth quarter and full-year financial results. Solutia’s fourth-quarter net income rose 15 percent to $54 million, or 45 cents per share, from $47 million, or 39 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue increased 8 percent to $526 million.

For the full-year, Solutia earned $262 million, or $2.16 per share. That compares with earnings of $78 million, or 65 cents per share, in the previous year. Annual revenue climbed 8 percent to $2.1 billion.

Tim Logan of the Post-Dispatch and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

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The biggest year for overseas buyouts by Japan

Few U.S. companies plan to step up hiring in the next six months although they do expect the economy to be a bit stronger this year, according to a poll released on Monday.

The National Association for Business Economics’ industry survey found that two-thirds of respondents expected no change in employment at their companies over the first half of the year. That was the highest share in recent quarters.

Although the U.S. jobless rate fell to a near three-year low of 8.5 percent in December, fewer businesses said they would hire more workers, compared with the previous industry poll.

The survey, which was conducted between December 15 2011, and January 5 2012, found that 65 percent of respondents expect gross domestic product growth to exceed 2 percent between the fourth quarter of last year and the last quarter of 2012.

That was higher than the 1.6 percent growth rate economists polled by Reuters found.

About two-thirds of the companies surveyed said the European debt crisis would have little impact on their sales over the first half the year, while 27 percent of respondents said they expected to see a decline in sales of 10 percent or less.

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