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The U.S., the European Union and Japan complained at the World Trade Organization today over Chinese limits on exports of rare earths that are critical to the world

TRAVELS WITH CHARLES: Our town’s low-profile, high-finance specialist, Charles Lowenhaupt, flew home from Sydney the other night on a flight loaded with such high-profile Aussies as Nicole Kidman and hubby Keith Urban, Tobey Maguire and Orlando Bloom.

Lowenhaupt, who is recognized worldwide for managing wealth for ultra-high net worth families, was there for meetings at his office, Lowenhaupt Global Advisors Australia.

When he flew home via Los Angeles on Qantas airlines, Lowenhaupt was in first class and found himself seated with the stars. He says all minded their own business while Kidman and Urban had dinner together with one of their children, Sunday Rose, 3. Their younger daughter, Faith Margaret, 14 months, was upstairs in business class with a nanny.

According to the entertainment mags, the family of four spent a stint in Australia visiting their families while Kidman was a judge at Tropfest, an annual festival of short films. Other judges were Cate Blanchett, Geoffrey Rush and Toni Collette.

Urban also had business there, filming an Australian version of “The Voice” with Joel Madden and Delta Goodrem.

On a side note, Bloom’s gorgeous model wife, Miranda Kerr, is an ambassador for Qantas.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke defended the central bank

In March, Sherry Hunt and a co-worker were called into a meeting at CitiMortgage’s big operations base in O’Fallon, Mo.

A high company executive awaited her there.

“It’s your asses if these defects don’t improve,” Hunt recalled being told by her “boss’s boss’s boss.”

Hunt didn’t create the “defects” in mortgage applications. It was her job to find them — red flags for bad loans. She felt the executive wanted her to stop doing her job and let the bank make bad loans that would be guaranteed by the federal government.

“The message was clear to me,” Hunt recalled. “I was threatened.”

Her experience provides a telling window into the inner-workings of mortgage misconduct that continued to occur even after the global financial system nearly collapsed due to the industry’s shady dealings with subprime loans and mortgage-backed securities.

Hunt, rather than cave to pressure, filed a “whistleblower” lawsuit against CitiMortgage and its Citigroup parent, claiming the mortgage lender deliberately ignored fraud and errors in government-insured mortgage programs. The U.S. Department of Justice then joined the suit.

Earlier this month, Citigroup admitted that it approved Federal Housing Administration mortgages that failed to meet government guidelines. It agreed to settle the suit for $158 million, the amount government expects to lose on FHA mortgages it claims Citi should never have made.

Hunt filed suit under the federal False Claims Act, which lets whistleblowers share in the payout if their suits succeed. Her take, minus legal fees, will be $31 million.

“I didn’t do it for the money,” said Hunt in an interview last week with her and her lawyer, Finley Gibbs.

As she tells it, Hunt tried hard to persuade Citi management to root out fraud. She complained weekly in memos, and finally took her case to human resources. When all that failed, and the pressure to bend kept building, she went to a lawyer.

In an emailed statement, Citi said it settled “so we could put these issues behind us and focus on serving our clients. We take our quality assurance processes seriously and have pro-actively undertaken process improvements.”

The bank declined to respond to specific allegations. A spokesman also would not say if Citi had removed or reassigned executives because of the case, or describe other changes it made to satisfy the government.

Now that it’s over, Hunt thinks CitiMortgage will finally reform. But it’s not clear if she’ll be there to see it; she’s now negotiating whether she remains an employee with the company.

INSPECTING LOANS

Hunt lives on a “hobby farm” in Silex with her retired husband, Jonathan. They grow alfalfa and vegetables. She is reticent about her private life. She declined to say how many children she has, for instance, or describe her upbringing. She wouldn’t say what she might do with so much money.

Her entire working life — 37 years — has been spent in the behind-the-scenes paper-shuffle of mortgage processing.

Citigroup, the nation’s third largest bank, is a giant in the mortgage business. It made 30,000 FHA loans since 2004, totaling more than $4.8 billion. About 30 percent have defaulted, according to the government.

Like many big lenders, Citi can make government-backed loans — putting taxpayers on the hook for defaults — without sending applications to the FHA for review. But it has to abide by strict guidelines and set up separate quality control departments, independent of the bank’s other operations, to flag suspicious applications.

That was Hunt’s job at CitiMortgage. She had started in the mortgage business in 1975 at age 18 as a lowly processor, then climbed the ladder into management. By 2008, she supervised nine workers in the quality control department. They scrutinized one out of every 10 mortgage applications.

They caught “over a thousand” applications with problems, according to Gibbs, her lawyer. Some were obvious fraud – such as numbers whited-out on a W-2 wage form faxless payday loans. Others may have been goofs, such as missing documents or wrong calculations.

The cases were passed on to a fraud unit, which verified that about half really were attempts to cheat, says Hunt. Such cases were supposed to be reported quickly to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which overseas the FHA. But the government wasn’t hearing of the problems.

At first, Hunt didn’t blame the Citi system. “The sheer volume of referrals was overwhelming,” she thought.

More than 1,000 cases referred by Hunt’s unit were backed up in the fraud unit in 2009, according to the government. More than 80 percent were loans that had defaulted shortly after they were made, which the government calls an indicator of fraud. Eventually, Citi simply erased those records from its files, the government charged.

Then Hunt suspected something more sinister, a “pattern of behavior,” she said. “As I found things against the HUD rules and reported them to management, nothing happened, even after more follow-ups.”

According to the government, Citi’s misbehavior started in 2004, when it took the quality control function away from an outside contractor and moved it in house. It continued until mid-2011. That was more than two years after CitiGroup nearly failed over problems that included massive investments in bad mortgages. The government bailed out the bank to the tune of $45 billion.

BULLYING

Hunt wasn’t alone in her worries. According to the government’s suit, Michael Watts, the director of quality control, complained repeatedly to company officials charged with controlling risk. He warned that employees had “marching orders” to fight quality control decisions.

At one large staff meeting, managers praised loan processors for “beating back” the quality control team and getting them to withdraw complaints, she said. The quality control team was standing there listening. “Someone was allowing them to bully us,” Hunt said.

In June of last year, Hunt wrote a memo complaining about pressure from Jeffrey Polkinghorne, Citi’s director of “front-end” risk. “We also have Polkinghorne telling us it is our asses . . . if the quality does not improve,” she wrote, according to the federal complaint.

At that point, Hunt could have shut up and started overlooking problems. Instead, she complained to CitiMortgage human resources department. There were meetings. Five months later, nothing had changed.

That’s when she decided to blow the whistle outside Citi.

Part of the decision was self interest — she wanted to separate herself from an illegal activity. Hunt also felt an obligation to keep the mortgage industry honest. The FHA had certified her to handle its mortgages. “I uphold their standard,” she said.

She talked with her husband about the costs of standing up, about everything they could lose. Her career. Their home.

She talked to Gibbs, a lawyer from Columbia, Mo., who she knew. Gibbs knew about the federal false claims act, although he had never handled such a case. He filed suit in August.

Then Hunt went back to work. “I kept a low profile. It wouldn’t serve a purpose for me to go blasting this all over the place,” she said.

False Claims Act suits are filed under seal, and they remain sealed until the government decides whether to participate. For the first few weeks, Citigroup didn’t know it was being sued.

The Justice Department got interested and took up the case. It began negotiating with Citgroup. The law forbids employers from retaliating against whistleblowers, and Hunt said she felt no blowback at work.

“I don’t believe much of this filtered down to the O’Fallon office,” she said. “I was comforted in my mind that nobody I was passing in the hallways knew.”

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Consumer sentiment improved a tad in February to rack up a year high as Americans became more confident about the economy’s resilience, a survey released on Friday showed.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 75.3, edging up from 75.0 the month before. It was the highest level since February 2011.

It surpassed economists’ expectations of 73.0 and recovered from a decline to 72.5 in February’s preliminary reading.

“It is not that surging oil prices, instability in the Mideast, the European crisis or uncertainties about future tax and spending policies could not ultimately derail the recovery, but that consumers expect the pace of overall economic growth to continue to slowly restore lost jobs despite these potential problems,” survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

The survey’s barometer of current economic conditions eased to 83.0 from 84.2, but the survey’s gauge of consumer expectations also rose to its highest level in a year at 70.3 from 69.1.

A third of consumers spontaneously reported hearing about more job opportunities, the highest proportion ever recorded by the survey.

But consumers’ outlook for the economy and job growth was more positive than their views on their own finances. Improving finances were reported by 27 percent of respondents, down from 29 percent in January.

The survey’s one-year inflation expectation held steady at 3.3 percent, while the survey’s five-to-10-year inflation outlook rose to 2.9 percent after sitting at 2.7 percent for four months.

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The number has been repeated so often by presidential prognosticators that it’s an article of faith: No president has been re-elected since World War II with an unemployment rate higher than 7.2 percent.

But the stock market turns out to be a pretty good predictor, too.

The Dow Jones industrial average has soared 62 percent since President Barack Obama took the oath of office during some of the darkest days of the Great Recession. The Dow was just below 8,000 then and stands near 13,000 today.

If a recent study of stock markets and presidential elections is any guide, Obama can start preparing his second inaugural address.

“There’s something to this,” says Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors, the $370 billion investment firm.

There are plenty of other signs often consulted for their political forecasting power, like whether a team from the National Football Conference or the American Football Conference wins the Super Bowl.

This one makes a little more sense: When the economy picks up and unemployment falls, confident investors put money into riskier investments and stocks rise. Voters are likely to reward the sitting president with another four years.

“The stock market reflects trends in the economy,” Orlando says. And as any political operative can attest, in a presidential campaign, it’s the economy _ you know the rest.

The study was backed by the Socionomics Institute, a think tank studying how a shared mood among a group sways its members’ actions. Their researchers dug up data on economic output, prices, unemployment and stock-market performance and matched them to presidential elections.

They went all the way back to the first re-election in 1792, when George Washington beat John Adams and won a second term as the president.

The researchers found a solid connection between the stock market’s direction in the three years leading up to Election Day and the election results. Gains of 20 percent or more for the Dow nearly assured victories for sitting presidents. Drops of 10 percent or worse got them tossed out.

Voters returned Calvin Coolidge to the White House in 1924, just as the Roaring ’20s started roaring. They booted Herbert Hoover in 1932 while the stock market suffered through a three-year plunge.

The authors of the Socionomics Institute study say everything can be traced back to the prevailing optimism or pessimism. Their organization studies “the social mood.” But how do you read the mood of a whole country?

The authors say that the stock market is the best available gauge of how the country is feeling, “because investors can act swiftly to express their optimism or pessimism.” Bad day? Time to sell. Things looking up? Time to buy.

“An increasingly positive social mood produces a rising stock market as well as votes for the incumbent, and an increasingly negative social mood produces a falling stock market as well as votes against the incumbent,” they write.

To the authors, it’s the mood that determines the election, not the stock market. The stock market is just a reliable gauge of the national temper, an incredibly accurate mood ring.

In recent successful re-election campaigns, the connection appears clear. Ronald Reagan won re-election in 1984 following the Dow’s 41 percent surge and despite an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent. Bill Clinton was awarded a second term after the Dow gained 63 percent in the three years leading up to Election Day.

But there are misfires. James Madison, for instance, won re-election in 1812 despite a 34 percent drop in the market over three years. George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton even though the Dow rose 51 percent over his term in office.

Doug Wead, a presidential historian who served in the elder Bush’s administration, says the stock market theory sounds suspect.

“The stock market isn’t even a good indicator of the economy,” he says. “You can have the stock market going up while the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.”

There’s also the danger of oversimplifying _ relying on one number, in this case the Dow’s performance, while ignoring everything from scandals and wars to third-party candidates.

In William Howard Taft’s last three years in office, the Dow lost 12 percent, and Taft lost the 1912 election to Woodrow Wilson. But if Theodore Roosevelt hadn’t split from the Republicans and run under the Progressive Party banner against Taft that year, Taft might have returned to office.

It was a similar story with the first President Bush in 1992. The independent candidate Ross Perot siphoned off votes from both candidates, but historians generally believe more came from Bush’s Republican camp. Clinton won with just 43 percent of the popular vote.

The economy also slipped into a recession during Bush’s second year in office, and as he campaigned for re-election, the unemployment rate hovered well above the dreaded 7.2 percent mark.

Orlando, of Federated Investors, says a change in any single statistic won’t guarantee a president gets re-elected. Analysts should consult a range of figures. One that looks less reassuring for Obama is his approval rating, he says.

No president has been re-elected with a Gallup approval rating below 48 percent approaching Election Day. Obama’s numbers are improving, and the election is more than eight months away, but for now he’s teetering on the edge _ 48 percent.

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Builders broke ground on more homes than forecast in January, helped by warmer weather and adding to signs the U.S. residential real estate market is stabilizing.

Starts rose 1.5 percent to a 699,000 annual rate from December

Greece’s coalition government on Monday caved in to demands to cut civil service jobs, announcing 15,000 positions would go this year, amid mounting international pressure to agree on austerity measures needed to secure major new debt agreements.

The announcement signals a shift in Greece’s policy, as state jobs have so far been protected during the country’s acute financial crisis, which started about two years ago. Public Sector Reform Minister Dimitris Reppas said the job cuts would be carried out under a new law that allows such firings.

Unions have called a 24-hour general strike for Tuesday, in response to the new austerity measures, while about 4,000 protesters braved torrential rain late Monday to join protest rallies organized in central Athens by left-wing opposition parties.

Greece is racing to push through painful reforms and clinch a euro130 billion ($170 billion) bailout deal from its European partners and the International Monetary Fund to avoid a March default on its bond payments.

Debt-ridden Greece has been kept solvent since May 2010 by payments from a euro110 billion ($145 billion) international rescue loan package. When it became clear the money would not be enough, a second bailout was decided last October.

Its implementation depends on the austerity measures but also on separate talks with banks and other private bondholders to forgive euro100 billion ($131.6 billion) in Greek debt, in exchange for a cash payment and new bonds worth 50 per cent less than the original face value, longer repayment terms and a cut in the interest rate to be paid on the bonds. Greek government officials say they expect private investors to take an overall cut of up to 70 percent on the value of their bonds.

But delays in negotiations with rescue creditors pushed a crucial meeting of coalition party leaders back by one day to Tuesday.

“We are opposed to indiscriminate firings,” Reppas said. “The work force reduction is strictly connected with the restructuring of services and organizations at each ministry.”

Officials at the Public Sector Reform Ministry gave no details of the new plan, or say how many of the job cuts would be compulsory.

The government has promised to reduce the 750,000-strong broader public sector by 150,000 by the end of 2015, but has so far insisted it could reach that target through staff attrition.

Greece’s coalition party leaders pushed back a key meeting by a day till Tuesday, due to the ongoing negotiations with EU-IMF debt inspectors who were to hold a new round of talks later Monday.

They have already agreed to cut 2012 spending by 1.5 percent of gross domestic product _ about euro3.3 billion ($4.3 billion) _ improve competitiveness by slashing wages and non-wage costs, and re-capitalize banks without nationalizing them.

Creditors are also demanding spending cuts in defense, health and social security, a cut in the minimum wage, as well as the civil service layoffs, as European pressure increased on Greece to make more concessions.

European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj Tardio said Greece is already “beyond the deadline” to end the talks.

After talks in Paris with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there can be no bailout deal unless Athens implements creditors’ proposals.

“(The proposals) are on the table,” she said. “And time is pressing. Therefore something has to happen quickly.”

“Time is pressing and for the entire eurozone is much at stake,” Merkel added.

Greece is in its fifth year of recession, while unemployment has hit record highs of about 19 percent _ following a spate of austerity measures in return for the rescue loans, that included significant cuts in pensions and salaries coupled with repeated tax hikes and an increase in retirement ages.

“The current policy of austerity … is turning workers into pariahs, jobless people and pensioners into paupers and deprives our youth of any hope,” a statement from the servants’ union ADEDY said. “This policy has already pushed Greeks beyond their limits and must be stopped at any cost.”

Yiannis Panagopoulos, leader of Greece’s largest union, the GSEE, said the creditors’ demands were certain to lead to more hardship.

“What is going on is not a negotiation,” he said. “It’s blunt, cynical blackmail targeting an entire people.”

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The European Central Bank is considering using its bond holdings to bolster Greece

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is gaining support among Canadians for his plan to ship oilsands crude to China after President Barack Obama rejected TransCanada Corp. (TRP)