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Few U.S. companies plan to step up hiring in the next six months although they do expect the economy to be a bit stronger this year, according to a poll released on Monday.
The National Association for Business Economics’ industry survey found that two-thirds of respondents expected no change in employment at their companies over the first half of the year. That was the highest share in recent quarters.
Although the U.S. jobless rate fell to a near three-year low of 8.5 percent in December, fewer businesses said they would hire more workers, compared with the previous industry poll.
The survey, which was conducted between December 15 2011, and January 5 2012, found that 65 percent of respondents expect gross domestic product growth to exceed 2 percent between the fourth quarter of last year and the last quarter of 2012.
That was higher than the 1.6 percent growth rate economists polled by Reuters found.
About two-thirds of the companies surveyed said the European debt crisis would have little impact on their sales over the first half the year, while 27 percent of respondents said they expected to see a decline in sales of 10 percent or less.
One of the biggest suppliers of oil to the United States may shut off the spigot this weekend, pushing crude and gasoline prices higher for Americans.
Nigeria, which supplies 8 percent of U.S. oil imports, could see production halted if striking workers walk off the job Sunday. Workers are demanding the return of a vital government fuel subsidy that has kept gasoline prices low in that impoverished and restive nation of 160 million people.
It’s unclear how much of Nigeria’s production would be affected. At worst, the country’s 20,000 unionized oil workers could take as much as 2.4 million barrels of daily crude production off the market, striking at the heart of Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.
Even if strikers are only partially successful, fears of tightened global supplies could raise oil prices by $5-$10 per barrel on futures markets next week. Gasoline prices would follow, rising by as much as 10 cents per gallon and forcing U.S. drivers to spend an additional $36 million a day at the pump.
Gasoline now costs $3.39 per gallon (89 cents a liter) after rising 11 cents since the start of the year. Experts predict the national average could rise as high as $4.25 per gallon ($1.12 a liter) in 2012.
The Nigerian government already has offered a smaller, temporary fuel subsidy and will meet with union leaders on Saturday. The strike could be called off but protesters have promised to halt production if they don’t get the full, $8 billion subsidy restored.
Disruptions would have a long-term impact on Nigeria’s economy. Union president Babatunde Ogun said it could take six months to a year to restart oil fields once they’re shut down.
“If everything comes to a standstill, the government will budge,” Ogun told reporters this week in Lagos.
The threat to shut off oil production is the latest move by protesters after a week of violent, anti-government clashes throughout the country. The strike began Monday to challenge President Goodluck Jonathan’s decision to abandon the fuel subsidy.
“It’s going to be a showdown this weekend,” in Nigeria, Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Fadel Gheit said. “You can only hope that cooler heads will prevail.”
It’s hard to predict how effective a national oil worker strike would be.
Oil production facilities are usually automated, allowing them to pump oil out of the ground without anyone at the platform. But if something breaks, if the pressure in the well fluctuates, or if other problems occur that cause an automatic system shutdown, there wouldn’t be anyone there to get production running again.
It’s likely oil companies operating in the region _Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Total SA and Eni S.P.A. _ would simply shutter their platforms and wait for political tensions to subside, Gheit said. Oil companies could still export oil from storage terminals on the coast; that is, if union workers at the terminals stay on the job.
The price of oil already has swung up and down this year because of supply concerns in another oil-rich part of the world, the Persian Gulf. Iran, the world’s third-largest crude exporter, is sparring with the U.S. and Europe over its nuclear program.
While Iranian imports are banned in the U.S. because of long-standing tensions, the country supplies 2.2 million barrels per day to the rest of the world, including Europe. Meanwhile, Libya is quickly restarting oil fields that were shut down during the anti-government uprising last year. It has about 1 million barrels per day back online, and it expects to increase production to pre-rebellion levels of 1.6 million barrels per day by mid-year.
Oil prices fell by $2.86 this week to end at $98.70 per barrel in New York. Prices dropped as Europe delayed a decision to ban Iranian imports. But they could snap back up given the variety of geopolitical problems affecting world supplies, including the threat of a Nigerian oil worker strike.
The U.S. government expects the price of oil to average $100.25 per barrel this year.
Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, said oil could jump by $5-$10 per barrel if the strike begins Sunday. Nigeria ranks behind Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Venezuela in oil exports to the U.S. It produces a valuable crude variety that is easier and cheaper to turn into gasoline than others.
Investors, who have been numbed from years of political unrest in Nigeria that included sabotage, thievery, environmental protests and other operating problems, may wait to see how the government works with the union. Nigerian oil always seems to be under a perpetual threat of some kind, Lynch said.
“Though this time seems more serious,” he said.
Nigerians have been upset for years as international oil production damaged the environment with little apparent domestic benefits. One of the only visible perks was the fuel subsidy. Removing it forced gasoline prices to jump overnight from $1.70 per gallon to at least $3.50 per gallon _ a crippling increase for a nation where most people live on less than $2 a day.
The government still seems determined to have its way, Barclays analyst Helima Croft said, but an oil field strike would be a game changer. If workers can shut down oil production, it’s only a matter of time before declining oil revenues will force the government to cave, she said.
“Any disruptions in either oil production or exports would severely constrain government activities and its ability to meet its obligations,” Croft said.
Eighty percent of the country’s revenue comes from oil.
St. Louis Place, a 20-story office building in downtown St. Louis, is facing foreclosure after its owner apparently was unable to renegotiate its real estate loan with U.S. Bank.
The building, at 200 North Broadway, is nearly 90 percent full. The primary occupant is the headquarters of Fleishman-Hillard, the public relations firm with offices worldwide.
A foreclosure sale is scheduled for Jan. 27.
Records show that Behringer Harvard, a Dallas-based real estate investment trust, and affiliates paid Trizec Properties $30.15 million for St. Louis Place in 2004. The red brick building, designed by the Peckman Guyton Albers & Viets architecture firm and completed in 1983, is distinctive for balconies set beneath a large overhang spanning the middle floors.
A Behringer Harvard official was unavailable for comment Monday. A lawyer for U.S. Bank declined to comment.
In a report to the Securities and Exchange Commission in November, Behringer Harvard said its St. Louis Place property manager and asset manager was in talks with the lender to restructure the loan No teletrack payday loans. The report said there was “no assurance that this loan will be restructured,” adding that foreclosure or surrendering the building to the lender was possible.
Also in November, U.S. Bank went to court to get a receiver appointed to take over the building’s operation.
On Thursday, St. Louis Circuit Judge Mark Neill appointed Cassidy Turley, a commercial real estate firm, to manage St. Louis Place.
Lingering weakness in the downtown property market has put pressure on building owners to maintain occupancy and lease rates while trying to pay off large real estate loans.
At least one big downtown company has decided to stay put and buy its leased space instead of building a new headquarters. In August, Stifel Finacial Corp. said it would buy its headquarters at 501 North Broadway instead of investing in a new headquarters at Ballpark Village.
When investors look at the change in McDonald’s share price last year, they can think only one thing: "I’m lovin’ it."
The fast food giant was the best performer on the Dow Jones industrial average () in 2011, up 31%. That was enough to beat out Warren Buffett’s newest favorite, IBM (, Fortune 500), No. 2 among the blue chip winners.
At the other end of the spectrum was Bank of America (, Fortune 500), which suffered a 58% plunge to lows not seen since 2009. That slump gave it an easy win over Alcoa (, Fortune 500), whose shares lost 44%, in the competition for dubious distinction of ‘biggest loser.’
But those troubled giants were the exception among Dow stocks in 2011.
Overall, the index rose 5.5% in 2011, outpacing the performance of not just the S&P 500 (), down only 0.003%, but also the tech-heavy Nasdaq () and the broader Wilshire 5000 (), which finished the year lower.
And of the 30 Dow components, 18 finished in positive territory for the year.
Fortune 500: Worst performers of 2011
McDonald’s (, Fortune 500) has been helped by strong sales both domestically and globally. Shares hit an all-time high of $100.82 this week before settling back a bit to close Friday at $100.33.
Meanwhile, No. 2 IBM had already achieved its run up by the time Buffett disclosed in November that Berkshire Hathaway (, Fortune 500) had purchased a 5% stake in the company. Its shares are down slightly since then but still managed a 25% gain for the year.
Buffett didn’t do as well when he threw Bank of America a $5 billion lifeline, buying preferred shares of the troubled bank in a deal announced in August. Since then, the bank’s stock has continued to slide, putting the investment in the red, even with the $300 million in annual dividends that Berkshire will pocket.
Bank of America has also been shrinking, announcing plans to shed 30,000 employees and close branches, and losing its title of the nation’s largest bank to rival JPMorgan Chase (, Fortune 500) in the third quarter. It was also forced to reverse course and drop a $5-a-month debit card fee after strong customer backlash.
In comparison to Bank of America’s high profile problems, aluminum maker Alcoa’s stock suffered a relatively quiet slide, as concerns about a looming recession in Europe and a possible slowdown in Chinese production hammered pricing and profits.
The company’s third-quarter earnings miss added to its disappointing share performance.
Manufacturing in India and China improved in December, a sign the world
The last time Mark Stella went to the dentist he didn’t need an insurance card. Instead, he pulled out a Groupon.
Stella, a small business owner, canceled his health insurance plan more than three years ago when his premium rose to more than $400 a month. He considered himself healthy and decided that he was wasting money on something that he rarely used.
So when a deal popped up on daily deals site Groupon for a teeth cleaning, exam and an X-ray at a nearby dentist, Stella, 55, bought the deal _ which the company calls a “Groupon” _ for himself and another for his daughter. He paid $39 for each, $151 below what the dentist normally charges.
Daily deal sites like Groupon and LivingSocial are best known for offering limited-time discounts on a variety of discretionary goods and services including restaurant meals, wine tastings, spa visits and hotel stays. The discounts are paid for upfront and then it’s up to the customer to book an appointment and redeem a coupon before it expires. Merchants like the deals because it gives them exposure and a pop in business. Customers use them to try something new, to save money on something they already use, or both.
The sites are increasingly moving beyond little luxuries like facials and vacations and offering deals that are helping some people fill holes in their health insurance coverage. Visitors to these sites are finding a growing number of markdowns on health care services such as teeth cleanings, eye exams, chiropractic care and even medical checkups. They’re also offering deals on elective procedures not commonly covered by health insurers, such as wrinkle-reducing Botox injections and vision-correcting Lasik eye surgery. About one out of every 11 deals offered online is for a health care service, according to data compiled by DealRadar.com, a site that gathers and lists 20,000 deals a day from different websites.
“I was accustomed to going to the dentist every six months,” said Stella who owns SmartPhones, a store and wholesale business in Miami that sells mobile phone covers and accessories. “This filled the gap.”
The deals are popping up across the nation. In New York, a full medical checkup with blood, stool and urinalysis testing sold for $69 in December on Groupon _ below the regular price of $200. In Seattle, a flu shot was offered on AmazonLocal for $17, down from $35. In Chicago, LivingSocial sold a dental exam, cleaning, X-rays and teeth whitening trays for $99, a savings of $142.
About 9 percent of all offers on daily deal websites in November were for dental work or some kind of medical treatment, up from 4.5 percent in the beginning of 2011, said Dan Hess, CEO and founder of Local Offer Network, which runs DealRadar.com. The growth in health-related deals is good news for millions of Americans. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 46.3 million Americans under 65 have no health coverage.
The number of health care deals began rising as copycat websites attempted to get a piece of the market. Search leader Google and shopping site Amazon.com have recently gotten into the game.
Not all have been successful. In August, social networking site Facebook dropped its plan to start a daily deal business, and Yelp, a site that allows customers to write reviews of restaurants and other businesses, scaled back its daily deal efforts business card design. Many smaller sites have closed. But the shakeout in the industry hasn’t hurt the number of health deals being offered since the industry leaders, like Groupon, are offering more deals and are moving into more markets, Hess said.
The health care deals may be attractive for people with gaps in their coverage or no insurance, but jumping from one health care provider to the next isn’t ideal. Visiting the same doctor or dentist makes it easier to monitor how a patient’s health is progressing, said David Williams, co-founder of medical consultancy group MedPharma Partners and author of HealthBusinessBlog.com.
Also, it’s important for patients to do their own research before buying a medical or dental deal, Williams said. “A referral from someone you trust is the best path,” said Williams.
Dental deals are the most popular among users of local deal websites _ likely because even more people lack dental insurance than health insurance. Among the 172 million people under 65 who have private health insurance in the U.S., about 45 million don’t have dental coverage, according to the CDC.
Dentists have traditionally offered deals by mailing out coupons, but paper coupons have a low redemption rate, Williams said. Local deal sites are more attractive to doctors and dentists because they get paid up front and they reach new clients.
“We reached a whole new demographic who otherwise wouldn’t find us,” said Dr. Gregg Feinerman, an ophthalmologist who runs Feinerman Vision Center in Newport Beach, Calif. He offered a 58 percent discount on Lasik eye surgery through Groupon. “It’s a better way to market,” he said.
He used Groupon as a way to bring in patients under 30-years old with the hope that they would recommend his services to friends and rate him on review website Yelp. A good review might persuade someone else to visit his office, Feinerman said. He charges $5,000 for the surgery on both eyes; a price that he said can be “overwhelming for 20-to 30-year-olds.”
Feinerman approached Groupon about listing the eye surgery for $3,000. Groupon, which is based in Chicago, pushed him to lower the price to $2,100.
Feinerman got exactly the type of patient he was looking for in Thomas Cho. Cho, 29, bought the offer and after the surgery wrote a review on Yelp. He gave the vision center five stars _ the highest rating on the website.
Cho said in an interview that his health insurance plan only covers 20 percent of the regular price of Lasik since it is considered a cosmetic procedure. He would have paid about $4,000 if he had used his insurance discount.
Cho decided to buy the Groupon, paying $2,100 initially. After consulting with the doctor, he upgraded his surgery to an all-laser procedure for $1,000 more. At the time, Cho’s credit card issuer was offering a 20 percent cash back promotion on Groupon purchases. In all, he saved more than $1,300.
“I had my post-op checkup and I am seeing 20/20,” Cho wrote on Yelp. “I couldn’t be happier.”
Stocks closed down more than 1% Wednesday, as investors continued to fret over how Europe could solve its debt troubles in 2012. Selling intensified ahead of the close.
On a light trading week, investors have few other economic or corporate indicators to mull before 2011 ends.
Still, traders and analysts said the low volumes led to more pronounced swings, and some of the moves are coming from year-end portfolio rebalancing rather than convictions over the trajectory of all stocks or a particular stock.
"I don’t know what to read into today," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. "There’s nothing going on in the U.S. market. It’s a holiday week."
The S&P fell back into negative territory for the year.
The Dow Jones industrial average () closed down 140 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 () slid 16 points, or 1.3%. The Nasdaq () lost 35 points, or 1.3% .
Dragging down the technology sector Wednesday were RIMM, () Netflix () and Fossil (). The Nasdaq is down roughly 2% for 2011.
Despite Wednesday’s sell-off, the Dow remains up 5% for 2011.
Some traders still hope to close the year poised for a January bounce. To get there, some say 1260 would be the magic number for the S&P to clear on Friday.
"If we could clear 1,260 by the end of the week, we could see a strong rally in January," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research.
If the S&P clears 1258 by year-end, it would mark the third straight year of gains. The index remains about 11% below where it closed at the end of 2007.
Still, after closing at 1250 Wednesday, stocks need to commence a substantial two-day rally to get there.
U.S. stocks have been buoyed recently by signs of improvement in the US economy, including declines in weekly claims for unemployment benefits and an uptick in new home construction.
But investors say the market remains vulnerable as the debt crisis in Europe continues to threaten the outlook for the global economy and financial markets easy to get unsecured personal loans.
One bright spot for Europe on Wednesday was an Italian auction of 3- and 24-month bonds that drew strong demand and yields half as high as the previous month’s auctions. The results helped lift European equities and banks.
Investors will be more closely watching Thursday’s auction of Italian 10-year bonds, which have seen yields continue to flirt with the 7% danger zone. That level is worrisome because it flashed the first warning signs for Ireland, Portugal and Greece, which all eventually needed bailouts.
U.S. stocks ended a listless session little changed Tuesday as investors weighed reports on consumer confidence and home prices.
World markets: Europe’s markets finished lower. Britain’s FTSE 100 () eased 0.1%, the DAX () in Germany slumped 2% and France’s CAC 40 () lost 1%
Economists a bit more optimistic
Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite () rose 0.2%, the Hang Seng () in Hong Kong fell 0.6% and Japan’s Nikkei () lost 0.2%.
Currencies and commodities: Oil prices eased off the previous sessions spike, slipping $1.64 to $99.70 a barrel. On Tuesday, crude prices jumped 2% after Iran threatened to choke off the flow of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold futures for February delivery fell $31.40 to $1,564.10 an ounce.
The dollar fell against the British pound and the Japanese yen but edged higher against the euro.
Companies: Shares in the financial sector remained under pressure throughout the trading day.
Top stocks of 2011
Citigroup (, Fortune 500), Credit Suisse (), Wells Fargo (, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (, Fortune 500) closed down between 1% and 4%.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury moved up sharply, with the yield falling to 1.928% from 2.01% from late Tuesday.
Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou said his rapprochement with China will encourage other nations to strengthen trade with the island and make it less dependent on the mainland, rebutting opposition criticism that he
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